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Home Technology & Startups

Tesla’s Elon Musk may not be the only one cashing in on humanoid robots

December 1, 2024
in Technology & Startups
Reading Time: 5 mins read
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This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

Look, I am momentarily tired of talking about Trump tariffs.

This past month, I’ve used this lovely newsletter to slice and dice the risk to investors from potential tariffs on everything from sneakers to computer chips to cars. I am not saying whatever President-elect Donald Trump is about to do on tariffs isn’t important — it most certainly is, a point reinforced to me when I chatted with Gap CEO Richard Dickson, Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Fran Horowitz, and HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores.

But the reality is we have no clue what Trump will ultimately decide and how it will impact the economy and the world order of business. Hence, I think we’ve truly entered the speculative zone on tariffs until Jan. 20, aka Trump’s second inauguration.

So I encourage you — the interested investor — to spend the next few weeks searching for investment themes that can win whether or not tariffs get enacted. Dare I say this would be akin to creating the Trump-resistant investor guide?

I have one chapter for you in that guide after a week of research: humanoid robots.

“This has gone from sci-fi to development and is about to kind of launch into something very big,” Citi Global Insights head of innovation technology and future of work Rob Garlick said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (see video above; listen below).

I invited Rob and his teammate, analyst Wenyan Fei, onto the pod after receiving their new, in-depth work on the future of humanoid robots.

I was blown away by the pace of development, possible use cases, and growth potential. Best believe there’s more going on in the sector than Tesla’s (TSLA) Optimus being able to catch a ball.

Here are the numbers and finer points Garlick and Fei put behind humanoids:

  • There could be 648 million humanoids moving around us by 2050, from about zero today.

  • The total addressable market (TAM) for humanoids may reach $209 billion by 2035 and $7 trillion by 2050.

  • The top four use cases in terms of growth potential are parcel delivery, construction, food delivery, and home services.

  • There are more than 50 companies that have developed working humanoid robots. Some noteworthy players include Alfie, a robot butler from Prosper Robotics that apparently can make your bed, and Kime, the humanoid from Macco Robotics that is a bartender. A few others can be seen in the graphic below.

  • Assuming a $30,000 cost for humanoids versus the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour for humans, the average payback period for a humanoid for a business is around 43 weeks. This assumes the humanoid works 96 hours a week. It may not be a bad thing for businesses if they don’t have to pay humans — no time off, no lagging employees, no overtime pay, no PIPs, no hassle!

  • China is moving very fast in the space, Garlick said.

Unsurprisingly, as humanoids penetrate our lives and do things like help take care of aging parents (which I mentioned as personally appealing in the pod), it will have profound changes on the concept of work.

“It could have a significant impact,” Garlick said, pointing to humanoids not needing days off or any other human worker perks. What holds them back are only two factors: They need to be charged (aka a version of human rest) and their parts need to be replaced after excessive wear.

Read more: What you missed at Yahoo Finance’s Invest conference

As of right now, if you are a true believer in humanoids, one of the simplest ways to play it is through Tesla. But then again, that’s a highly politicized electric car company masquerading as a future leader in robotics, not a pure play. So buyer beware.

The other name to watch is artificial intelligence darling Nvidia, which is penetrating the humanoid domain with its various computing offerings (and doing so, I think, before its rivals in the chip sector).

Most of the players racing to advance the technology are private, likely with an eye toward going public in the future or selling out to someone in Big Tech.

Who knows, maybe two years from now it will be Soz writing this newsletter — the humanoid journalist able to work 336 hours straight instead of just 100.

Three times each week, I drive insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid. You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

Click here for the latest technology news that will impact the stock market

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance


Tags: Donald TrumpEnrique Loreshumanoidhumanoid robotsRob Garlick
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