The recent minerals and mining deal between the United States and Pakistan will further fuel the existing security concerns in Balochistan, a region already marked by violence, aggression, suppression, and deprivation. The recent upsurge in large-scale attacks on the state’s economic infrastructure, along with blockades and the increasing assertion of control by Baloch armed organizations, is unprecedented.
As Baloch people demand freedom, the right to self-determination, and sovereignty over their historical and ancestral land, U.S. involvement in the exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources raises serious questions.
Developmental mega-projects and deals involving Balochistan’s natural resources have never benefited the indigenous population. Among the Baloch, these projects are widely seen as imposed without local approval or consent, and are often framed as acts of pillage and plundering. Previous development projects like the China-Pacific Economic Corridor (CPEC), Saindak, and Reko Diq have not served to improve the lives of Baloch people, and the broad expectation is that any new ventures – including U.S. investments – will follow the same path.
In Balochistan in particular, Chinese investment projects face not only strong political condemnation but outright lethal attacks from Baloch armed groups.
Over the years, China’s influence in the region has grown exponentially. While it maintains a military presence, it also harbors larger, long-term strategic ambitions. Yet, despite these efforts, even basic infrastructure remains unbuilt in Balochistan, highlighting the failure of CPEC. It’s evident that CPEC’s primary objectives were political and military expansion rather than genuine development – an approach that has strained China’s relations with Pakistan.
Now, in the current geopolitical milieu, the United States appears to be tilting once again toward Pakistan after four years of strained relations.
Following the handover of Afghanistan to the Taliban, the Biden administration downgraded relations with Pakistan. However, with the return of President Donald Trump and his unpredictable foreign policy – marked by breaking old alliances, forging new ones, and personally steering global politics – a renewed engagement with Pakistan seems to be underway. His recent meeting with Pakistan’s top military leader, General Asim Munir, in the White House and the announcement of a new deal to jointly develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves” signal potential dramatic shifts in the region, particularly in Balochistan.
What does the United States want in Balochistan? While Trump pointed to oil, analysts say Pakistan isn’t believed to have much to exploit; it’s actually a major importer of oil. But Pakistan – or, more specifically, Balochistan – is wealthy in other natural resources.
In December 2024, Daniel Runde, a senior adviser at BGR Group and a senior advisor (non-resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote an article in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune arguing in favor of “expanding U.S.-Pakistan relations through mining projects.” Runde pointed to a crucial but underdiscussed reality: Balochistan remains one of the most underexplored regions in the world when it comes to mineral wealth. Vast reserves of gold, copper, lithium, and other critical minerals lie beneath its soil. As the global competition over strategic minerals intensifies, so does Balochistan’s significance with fifth largest reserves of copper.
The “Trump administration can work to counter China’s control of the global critical mineral supply, by encouraging investments in Pakistani critical minerals while also reviving traditional security interests in the area,” Runde concluded.
The U.S. military is the world’s largest consumer of critical minerals. These resources are essential in powering drone fleets, reconnaissance robots, and directed energy weapons – all of which depend on high-efficiency electric batteries. Critical minerals are indispensable to modern warfare and surveillance technologies.
And currently, China dominates the global supply chains of critical minerals. Its recent ban on exports of rare earth minerals was enough to force the U.S. to the negotiating table, bringing an early end to this edition of the China-U.S. trade war.
Thus two strategic priorities are emerging for the U.S. with regards to Pakistan: restructuring regional security policy to diminish Chinese influence, and investing heavily in Pakistan’s mineral sector – particularly in Balochistan, which holds the lion’s share of these resources.
The greatest challenge to these ambitions is not geological or logistical; it is political. As China has learned the hard way, the Baloch insurgency stands as a powerful barrier to any foreign exploitation. If the United States seeks long-term presence and influence in this region, it will have to confront or suppress the Baloch struggle for self-determination.
Pakistan, already economically fragile and trapped in cycles of external debt, is the fifth-largest debtor to the International Monetary Fund. To sustain itself and please international creditors, the Pakistani state is likely to accept any deal that promises foreign investment or geopolitical support – even if it comes at the cost of further violence and dispossession in Balochistan.
In this unfolding scenario, a deeper U.S. presence in the region, along with its Western allies, will not bring peace or prosperity to Balochistan – it will escalate the conflict. A new layer of military intervention is expected, one that would amplify the violence already inflicted on the Baloch people. For decades, they have endured a slow genocide, brutal repression, and military occupation. They are treated as colonial subjects in their own ancestral land.
If the U.S. chooses to prioritize mineral extraction and geopolitical rivalry with China over the rights and dignity of the Baloch people, it will not only reproduce the violence of previous empires – it will deepen an already unfolding tragedy.
As Baloch armed organizations have broadly targeted foreign investments – particularly Chinese projects – there have been numerous attacks and suicide bombings, rendering parts of the CPEC dysfunctional. They hold a clear and uncompromising stance: no foreign investment is welcome in Balochistan without the consent of the Baloch nation.
In light of the objective reality, any new U.S.-backed deals over Balochistan’s mines and minerals are expected to deepen the cycle of suffering, dispossession, and violence. Rather than bringing development, these ventures are likely to accelerate displacement and killings, further compounding the hardships already inflicted by the Pakistani state’s extractive and militarized policies.
