Sudan has begun its third year of civil war in the bleakest manner imaginable: mourning the massacre of hundreds of civilians and relief workers in displacement camps in Darfur. What began as a power struggle between generals has led to the killing of tens of thousands of people and widespread sexual and ethnic violence. The International Rescue Committee says the result is the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded: 640,000 people face catastrophic hunger. Basic services and infrastructure, already woefully inadequate, have been destroyed.
“One thing that has been consistent since day one,” the Sudanese activist and commentator Dallia Mohamed Abdelmoniem observed this week, “[is that] it’s a war on civilians. Now, I think we’ve become so desensitised to it, that doesn’t make much of a difference any more. There’s no impact.”
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s army chief and de facto leader, and Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries, had together ousted civilian leadership before turning on each other in April 2023. Their vicious battle has forced tens of millions to flee their homes. Both sides have committed war crimes, and the US has accused the RSF and allied militias of genocide in Darfur. Outside parties have fuelled the conflict: Egypt and Saudi Arabia have close ties to the Sudanese army, while the Sudanese government and others accuse the United Arab Emirates of arming the RSF, which it denies.
Last month’s recapture of Khartoum by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has done nothing to end the conflict: on Wednesday, the RSF declared the creation of a rival government. There can be no military solution to the war. Instead, there is a growing prospect of effective partition. Having retaken the capital, the army may be even less willing to negotiate and may conclude that it is not overly concerned with the fate of Darfur and its people. There is also alarm that Gen Burhan has decreasing control over his forces and is increasingly dependent on hardline Islamists, whom neither the SAF’s Gulf backers nor the west want to see return to power. The country’s ethnic divisions, too, are growing.
The suffering of Sudan also has disturbing implications for a region facing other significant stresses. The influx of refugees has strained the impoverished eastern provinces of Chad. South Sudan, itself on the verge of civil war, has been destabilised by the interruption to its oil exports (which transit via Sudan) as well as the arrival of so many fleeing the conflict. Meanwhile, tensions are flaring between neighbouring Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Yet Sudan remains largely ignored as atrocities mount. Many are disappointed that the UK, the UN security council member meant to take the lead on Sudan, has failed to prioritise the conflict. Even the modest aim of its conference in London on Tuesday – to persuade the Arab states involved to agree some basic diplomatic principles for future discussions – failed. Humanitarian support should be a more straightforward issue. Yet the UN appeal remains shockingly underfunded and hundreds of millions of dollars previously promised to Sudan have not materialised. USAID cuts have further hit relief work. Despite their suffering, Sudanese civilians are doing remarkable work to alleviate the suffering of others, running emergency kitchens and meeting other basic needs. The very least they deserve is backing for these essential efforts.
