Since 1990, when the league expanded to a 12-team postseason format, teams with first-round byes have accounted for 79 percent of Super Bowl appearances despite making up only a third of the playoff field. And every Super Bowl team since 2013 has enjoyed a first-round bye.
That’s good news for the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Both teams will be at home watching this weekend’s opening round. But they are no lock to make it to the title game. In fact, it’s more likely they won’t face one other in Super Bowl LV.
Based on each team’s true talent level — derived by looking at its actual win rate and its projected win rate based on total points scored and allowed — we can project the playoffs 1,000 times and see which teams are most likely to reach the Super Bowl. Here are the most likely matchups based on those simulations. Also included are the implied money line and odds for each potential contest.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers (18 percent chance)
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with a career-high 48 touchdown passes, tying him with Hall of Famer quarterback Dan Marino for the fifth-most touchdown passes in NFL history. Rodgers also led the league with a 121.5 passer rating, the second-highest mark behind his own performance in 2011 (122.5). Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes led the league in passing yards per game (316.0) and interception rate, plus had 38 touchdown passes. His passer rating, 108.2, was the third highest of 2020, and second best among playoff quarterbacks.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints (13 percent chance)
New Orleans is known for its quarterback, Drew Brees, and its running back, Alvin Kamara, but the Saints’ defense carried much of the freight for them this season. New Orleans was credited with a sack on 45 of 557 drop-backs by opposing quarterbacks (the league’s sixth best rate), and that improves to the third best rate after you account for strength of schedule, per Football Outsiders.
Defensive tackle David Onyemata is the star here, registering 46 total quarterback pressures (sacks, hits and hurries) in 2020. That made him the ninth highest rated interior defenseman on pass-rushing snaps out of 71 qualified players at the position, per Pro Football Focus. Linebacker Demario Davis chipped in 33 total pressures and was rated the fourth-best linebacker in this regard.
Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers (11 percent chance)
Buffalo Coach Sean McDermott saw his squad’s efficiency on offense jump from 24th (1.6 points per drive) in 2019 to third (2.8 points per drive) this season thanks to the improvement of his quarterback. Josh Allen saw a 10-point improvement in his on-target pass rate from last season, per Sports Info Solutions, and finished the regular season with 4,544 passing yards, fifth most in the league.
Allen contributed to 46 total touchdowns (37 passing, eight rushing and one receiving), second only to Rodgers, accounting for 77 percent of his team’s touchdown total. Only Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert and Rodgers had a higher share of their team’s scoring output.
Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints (8 percent chance)
Implied money line: +1150
Buffalo’s pass rush is just as talented as the one in New Orleans, and the Bills have a more highly rated secondary, too. Cornerback Tre’Davious White allowed less than a yard per snap in coverage for the Bills (ranking 16th out of 78 qualified cornerbacks) and slot corner Taron Johnson was the only player at his position to play at least half of his team’s defensive snaps with an interception without allowing a touchdown. Safety Micah Hyde allowed just one reception for every 50 snaps in coverage, the fifth-best ratio this season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 percent chance)
Implied money line: +1600
Tampa Bay, the No. 5 seed in the NFC, may look like a surprise choice here, but its path to the Super Bowl is the third easiest in the conference thanks both to being good at football and a first-round game against the 7-9 Washington Football Team. The Bucs are 8½-point favorites over Washington.
Tampa Bay has the second strongest team in the NFL, per Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every play to a league average based on situation and opponent. The game charters at Pro Football Focus, after subjectively grading every snap, also rate the Buccaneers as the second-best overall team. ESPN’s Football Power Index places them third behind Kansas City and New Orleans. And according to data from TruMedia, Tampa Bay was nine points per game better than expected after accounting for the down, distance and field position of each play on offense and defense. Only Green Bay exceeded expectations by a greater margin (10 points per game).
Here are the chances we see the rest of the possible matchups in the Super Bowl, based on the 1,000 projections.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks (5 percent)
Implied money line: +1900
Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers (4 percent)
Implied money line: +2700
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 percent)
Implied money line: +2750
Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks (3 percent)
Implied money line: +3250
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (3 percent)
Implied money line: +3450
Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints (3 percent)
Implied money line: +3750
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints (2 percent)
Implied money line: +4850
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (2 percent)
Implied money line: +5350
Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers (2 percent)
Implied money line: +6150
Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers (2 percent)
Implied money line: +6150
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers (1 percent)
Implied money line: +8250
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 percent)
Implied money line: +8450
Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints (1 percent)
Implied money line: +8500
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints (1 percent)
Implied money line: +8500
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams (1 percent)
Implied money line: +9150
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks (1 percent)
Implied money line: +10000
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team (1 percent)
Implied money line: +10750
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 percent)
Implied money line: +10900
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints (1 percent)
Implied money line: +11400
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks (1 percent)
Implied money line: +12900
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Football Team (1 percent)
Implied money line: +18400
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 percent)
Implied money line: +19150
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 percent)
Implied money line: +19150
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +21650
Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +22650
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +22650
Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +25550
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +27700
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +30200
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +35600
Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +36950
Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Football Team (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +55450
Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Rams (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +62400
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +62400
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Football Team (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +71350
Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +83250
Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +111000
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Football Team (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +124900
Tennessee Titans vs. Washington Football Team (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +124900
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +142750
Cleveland Browns vs. Washington Football Team (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +166550
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +249900
Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +249900
Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears (<1 percent)
Implied money line: +333250
