When the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams meet for the NFC championship Sunday night, it will be — by at least one measure — the best NFL showdown of nearly the last five decades.
“By DVOA, the NFC Championship Game is essentially the best NFL matchup of the last 47 years, and by a lot,” Aaron Schatz, the chief analytics officer of FTN Fantasy, posted on X in the lead-up to the game.
DVOA, for those unfamiliar, stands for “Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.” What is measures is a “team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.” More simply put, it’s a measure of how good a team is, weighted for situation and opposing team.
And the Rams and the Seahawks have the highest combined DVOA of any two playoff teams of the last 47 years.
If the analytics don’t get you hot and bothered, though, don’t worry, because there are plenty more storylines headed into Sunday’s game. It’s a clash of division rivals who played two incredibly close games in the regular season (the combined margin of victory was three points). It’s a clash of an offensive wunderkind (Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay) and a defensive genius (Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald). It’s also a battle between two highly drafted quarterbacks (the Rams’ Matthew Stafford and the Seahawks’ Sam Darnold) in wildly different parts of their careers who both still have something to prove.
This matchup basically has everything you could want in a football game.
The Rams enter as an offensive juggernaut, leading the league in the regular season in yards per game, passing yards per game and points per game (30.5).
The Seahawks, in contrast, enter as defensive stoppers. Seattle allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in the regular season and the fewest points per game (17.2).
Both head coaches were able to maximize their rosters in large part because of unique strategies. The Rams were successful using “13-personnel,” or formations using three tight ends. Los Angeles used such formations at a 30.5% rate in the regular season, compared with the league average of 5.3%.
The Rams have succeeded using such formations because the size helps them run, while Stafford has also been able to have success throwing even though there are fewer receivers on the field.
“Thirteen personnel causes a lot of problems for” the defense, Los Angeles tight end Terrance Ferguson told The Athletic in December, adding that it forces defenses to choose between putting more linebackers or more defensive backs on the field. “It makes it easier on us. It’s the mismatches 13 personnel creates with the big bodies blocking safeties, and if you want to put big guys out there, we can run routes, as well.”
The Seahawks, though, are one of the few teams equipped to handle the three-tight-end formations. Seattle played the most snaps in the regular season with at least five defensive backs on the field, but the Seahawks were still able to stop the run despite eschewing size for speed. That’s in large part because of nickel cornerback (and rookie) Nick Emmanwori, who can cover receivers while tackling like a linebacker.
“They’re a group that can play a so-called lighter grouping because they go draft guys that they have a vision for. Nick has done a hell of a job,” McVay said during the week. “He’s playing outside linebacker for them, he’s playing safety, he’s playing star, he’s playing the ‘dime money’ spot. They move him all around, and they can be a nickel, but they can basically present a bunch of different base structures because of his versatility.”
Said Macdonald in December of his rookie’s unique ability: “We’ve never really had a player like him, so we are kind of making it up as we go to a certain extent.”
The chess match between the coaches will ultimately determine who makes the Super Bowl. In November, the Rams ironically won the defensive thriller, 21-19. Seattle, meanwhile, won the shootout, scoring a 38-37 overtime victory in an instant classic in December.
Sunday’s game will also be a legacy moment for the quarterbacks. Will Stafford get to another Super Bowl and add to the Hall of Fame résumé he has built in Los Angeles? Or will Darnold prove himself on a big stage against a defense that has historically troubled him?
All the strategies will be laid bare and all the questions will be answered in what is one of the most intriguing NFL games ever.
“It’s going to be a hell of an atmosphere, an environment,” McVay said. “We’re excited about it. Those are the moments you feel the most alive as a competitor, and we got to go handle it against a freaking damn good football team. But I wouldn’t expect anything less in the NFC championship if you expect to advance to a Super Bowl.”
