By Michelle Gavin
For some, the future of U.S.-Africa policy is looking up. Optimists are trumpeting the virtues of President-elect Trump’s enthusiasm for transactionalism, noting that it could lead to more investment on the continent and less moral posturing. Certainly, those outcomes are desirable, and a more transactional approach could, in some instances, line up U.S. priorities more closely with the job-creation needs of African societies.
If only deepening U.S.-Africa ties and creating benefits on both sides of the Atlantic were that easy . . . . But peace and security concerns have a nasty habit of biting into bottom lines. Last year, the World Bank scaled back its growth forecast for the entire region largely due to the dramatic shrinking of Sudan’s economy in the midst of devastating conflict. One can acknowledge that conflict in one place has too often been conflated with conflict “in Africa,” leading to inaccurate perceptions of risk, while still noting that peacemaking will have to be pursued alongside dealmaking.
Likewise, the win-win engagements transactionalism enthusiasts tout cannot simply be walled off from issues of governance. Consider the case of Mozambique, where the ruling party’s determination to cling to power led to a deeply flawed election in October. Citizens have been protesting and demanding accountable, transparent governance, while security forces have opened fire on unarmed civilians, killing 278 people. Trust in the country’s institutions is evaporating, and a prison break on Christmas Day only added to the sense of chaos. None of it bodes well for investors, who have been eager to move past human rights and political stability concerns in the resource-rich country. Self-styled realists who would like to see order restored without regard to citizens’ legitimate grievances, and who insist that the United States should focus only on getting deals done with those in power, might think again. It’s a playbook likely to place the United States on the wrong side of history (and one that has come back to bite France in other parts of the continent).
More trade and investment between the U.S. government and African states, and partnerships built on less talk and more action, are both worthy aims for U.S.-Africa policy. But there is no ignoring political reality. Civic forces in many African states are pushing for governance changes so that economic growth might provide opportunity to many, not just the powerful few. Aligning the search for stable investment climates with this undeniable demand coming from African populations will require more than simply making deals.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
