A Great Recession, a once-in-a-century pandemic, and three wars couldn’t hold markets back.
When the young Warren Buffett asked for Susie Thompson’s hand in marriage, he got it — but only after a political rant.
Harry Truman had lost the fight against communism, Susie’s father, Doc Thompson said. According to Alice Shroeder’s biography, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, he predicted that stocks would become “valueless bits of paper.” Still, Susie’s miserable future wouldn’t be Warren’s fault. The marriage was a go.
And as for those soon-to-be “valueless bits of paper”? In 1953, the first year after Warren and Susie’s wedding, the S&P 500 rang in the New Year at 26.18. During the next 10 years, it rose 148%. As of Friday, Jan. 16, 2026, it stood at 6,940.01, or a 26,409% rise since Buffett’s father-in-law’s bearish prophecy.
Politically driven investing decisions carry short-term costs, too
A 26,409% return will turn every $1 invested into $265 and change. After accounting for the inflation seen since 1952, every $1 became 12.23 today — a 1,123% inflation-adjusted return.
Today’s Change
(0.55%) $37.73
Current Price
$6913.35
Key Data Points
Day’s Range
$6893.62 – $6934.75
52wk Range
$4835.04 – $6986.33
Volume
3.3B
To be fair to Doc Thompson, he’s far from the only person who has sat on the sidelines of investing because of politics. And much of what he feared in 1952, from the continued spread of communism, to inflation and even a stock market crash in 1957, did come to pass.
And yet it’s undeniable that a president’s policies can affect sectors, and the entire stock market. So what about the short term? Has it ever been wise for potential investors to sit out markets out of a conviction that a president from either party will crash the economy?
To answer this question, I took the S&P 500’s close on the Inauguration Day of each of the U.S.’s past 10 presidents, including both of President Donald Trump’s non-consecutive terms, and compared it to the S&P 500’s close at the end of their term as well as its close as of Jan. 16, 2026. Here’s what the short-term and long-term numbers say.
| President | S&P 500 on Date of Inauguration | S&P 500 Gain During Term | S&P 500 Return Since Inauguration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Carter | 102.97 | 28% | 6,639% |
| Ronald Reagan | 131.65 | 118% | 5,172% |
| George H.W. Bush | 286.63 | 51% | 2,321% |
| Bill Clinton | 433.37 | 210% | 1,501% |
| George W. Bush | 1,342.45 | -40% | 417% |
| Barack Obama | 805.22 | 182% | 762% |
| Donald Trump I | 2,271.31 | 70% | 206% |
| Joe Biden | 3,851.85 | 56% | 80% |
| Donald Trump II | 5,996.66 | ?% | 16% |
The numbers are clear: Politics is never a reason to sit out markets
In the short term, only one president — George W. Bush — saw a negative return for the S&P 500 during his tenure. And even then, the S&P 500 has more than quintupled since his inauguration. Though Joe Biden and Donald Trump presided over market crashes in each of their first four years (Trump in the pandemic-induced crash in early 2020, and Biden in the 2022 market sell-off) both presidents still finished their first terms with markets solidly in the green.
Image source: Getty Images.
We still have three years until the current president’s term expires, and anything can happen in markets and investing. But market history is clear on one thing: Stocks have a powerful upward bias no matter which party has the White House. And anyone who sits out on what is perhaps the greatest wealth-creating vehicle in human history is leaving money on the table.
