Cairo University Geology and Water Resources Professor Abbas Sharaqi stated that there are three possibilities for Nile water to begin flowing towards Sudan and Egypt soon, following Ethiopia’s closure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) gates.
In a Facebook post on Wednesday, Sharaqi explained that Ethiopia has opened the gates of the Tekeze Dam on the Atbara River, while the GERD remains closed for water storage.
He noted that water from the Tekeze Dam flows towards the Upper Atbara and Setit dams, then to the Khashm al-Girba Dam in Sudan, and from there into the main Nile River, eventually reaching Lake Nasser in Egypt.
The Atbara River in Ethiopia contributes approximately 11 billion cubic meters of water annually to the Nile, he said, accounting for about 13 percent of the river’s total flow.
He clarified that its storage capacity is roughly nine billion cubic meters.
The GERD reservoir is also nearing its previous storage level of 60 billion cubic meters at an elevation of 638 meters, he said, which is expected within a few days. The current water reserve stands at approximately 58 billion cubic meters at an elevation of 637 meters.
Sharaqi then outlined three scenarios that Ethiopia is likely to adopt shortly:
- Opening the GERD Spillway Gates: Ethiopia might begin opening the spillway gates, as it did last year, to allow water to pass towards Sudan and Egypt.
- Overtopping the Middle Section: The gates could remain closed to test the flow of water over the dam’s middle section after the GERD reservoir is completely filled.
- Flow through Turbines (Least Likely): The least probable scenario is that water will pass through the power-generating turbines.
Professor Sharaqi noted that the GERD reservoir requires an additional four billion cubic meters of water to reach full storage capacity. This volume could be collected within a week, given the current inflow rate of approximately 300 million cubic meters per day.
He further stated: “Water is expected to flow from the spillway gates within days, or over the middle section by the end of this month, while the operation of the turbines remains unlikely.”
“In all scenarios, water will flow towards Sudan and Egypt, and the High Dam is fully prepared for the arrival of water at any time, whether from the turbines, spillway gates, or over the middle section.”
Tensions remain
Earlier in July, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had announced that the GERD’s construction was complete and it would be inaugurated next September after the summer rainy season subsides.
He extended an invitation to Egypt and Sudan to attend the opening ceremony.
In response, Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Hani Sewilam stated that Egypt categorically rejects Ethiopia’s continued imposition of a fait accompli through unilateral actions concerning the Nile River, viewing it instead as a shared international water resource.
According to a ministry statement, Ethiopia has consistently promoted the completion of the dam despite failing to reach a binding agreement with the downstream nations and the fundamental reservations expressed by both Egypt and Sudan.
He added that this reflects Ethiopia’s approach based on a mindset that, “Seeks to impose water hegemony instead of embracing the principle of partnership and cooperation—something the Egyptian state will not permit.”
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated, “Our position has not changed at all; Egypt will not allow any harm regarding the Nile River waters.” He stressed the necessity of translating Ethiopia’s statements into a written document that regulates the future relationship between the two countries and guarantees the rights of future generations.
