Trump Says Next spring Will Be the Largest Tax Refund Season in US History
US president Donald Trump said on Wednesday that taxpayers could soon see a major payoff from changes made to the tax code in 2025 under his “big beautiful bill.” Speaking during a prime-time address from the White House, Trump said that, “Next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time,” as quoted by CNBC.
How Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Changed 2025 Taxes
Tax experts say that outcome is possible, but not guaranteed for everyone. How much a taxpayer receives in 2026 will depend on how much they paid in taxes during 2025 and which parts of the new law apply to their situation.
Refunds generally occur when people pay more in taxes throughout the year than they owe, typically through paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. When withholdings fall short, taxpayers instead face a bill.
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Trump’s Approval Ratings
Trump’s remarks came against the backdrop of slipping approval ratings on inflation and the cost of living. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey conducted in early December found that 66% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation and living costs, up from 62% in October. As higher prices continue to squeeze budgets, expectations for tax relief are drawing renewed attention.
Retroactive Tax Cuts Could Boost 2026 Tax Refunds
Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy pointed out that, when filing 2025 tax returns in 2026, “many will see larger refunds than in recent years,” as quoted by CNBC.The reason lies in several retroactive tax changes enacted in July as part of Trump’s “big beautiful bill”. These include a larger standard deduction, an expanded child tax credit, a higher limit on the state and local tax deduction, a $6,000 tax break for seniors, and new deductions tied to auto loan interest, tip income and overtime pay.
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Why Workers Didn’t See Tax Cuts in Their Paychecks
The Tax Foundation estimates these seven provisions reduced individual income taxes by $144 billion in 2025. However, the IRS did not update withholding tables during the year, meaning most workers continued to have the same amount withheld from their paychecks.
Because of that, many taxpayers didn’t feel the tax cuts in real time. York explained that, “Instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts through higher take-home pay during the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns,” as quoted by CNBC.
Who Is Likely to Get a Bigger Tax Refund in 2026
Not all taxpayers will benefit equally. Broad provisions such as the higher standard deduction, expanded child tax credit and senior tax break are expected to affect many filers, while deductions related to tips and overtime apply to smaller groups.
In many ways, the changes represent a continuation of the tax framework that has been in place since 2017. Alex Muresianu, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, pointed out that, “The basic structure of it is going to be very much the same tax code that you’ve been used to for the past eight years,” as quoted by CNBC.
Wall Street Expects an ‘Exceptionally Large’ Refund Season
Wall Street analysts are also anticipating a strong refund season. In a note dated October 31, Piper Sandler projected “an exceptionally large refund season,” with middle- and upper-income taxpayers likely to see the biggest benefits, as per the CNBC report.
What IRS Data Shows About Average Tax Refunds
Refunds have already been trending slightly higher. IRS data show that as of October 17, the average refund during the 2025 filing season was $3,052, compared with $3,004 in 2024.
FAQs
Why is Trump saying 2026 will be a big tax refund year?
Because tax changes made in 2025 weren’t reflected in paychecks, many taxpayers may receive the benefit all at once when they file in 2026.
Will everyone get a larger tax refund in 2026?
No. Refund amounts depend on individual income, taxes paid in 2025, and which provisions apply to each filer.
