As U.S. President Donald Trump announces plans to withdraw from various international organizations and agreements, China is positioning itself as a global leader and capitalizing on the opportunity to fill a void left by the United States on the world stage, analysts say.
On his first day in office after Monday’s inauguration, Trump signed executive orders that started the process of pulling out of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, as he did in his first term.
The moves by the Republican president call into question the future of global public health responses and climate goals, and leave a leadership vacuum that China could try to fill.
“This creates potential for China to further bolster its influence in the multilateral institutions of the world and help govern the world,” said Gregory Chin, associate professor of political economy at York University in Toronto.
Indeed, China appears to be sending those signals already.
China’s messaging
In what could be seen as a strategically timed meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke via video just hours after Trump’s inauguration, underscoring their continued alliance.
“I’m willing to work with you to continue guiding China-Russia relations to a new height in 2025, to respond to external uncertainties,” Xi reportedly told Putin.
The Chinese leader said he wanted to “uphold international fairness and justice.”
Concurrently, Chinese officials echoed this messaging on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, touting the country’s commitment to fighting climate change.
“China has always been a staunch supporter of true multilateralism,” Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang said, adding the country was “steadfastly upholding the international system … and firmly maintaining the international order based on international law.”
In terms of “peace and security,” Ding said that “China has the best record among the world’s major powers.”
Also on Tuesday at a news conference in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated China’s concern about the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
“Climate change is a common challenge facing all mankind,” he said. “China’s determination and actions to actively respond to climate change are consistent.”
During Tump’s first term, the U.S. also withdrew from multiple international agreements, including the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the United Nations Human Rights Council.
It appears he is continuing on the same path.
When Trump won the presidential election over Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, in November, Jia Wang, senior fellow and senior adviser at the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, told CBC News that China could capitalize on the situation.
“China could take this opportunity to make more friends or at least reduce rivals and enemies,” she said.
The cost of development
As the U.S. turns inward, and as the new president touts the beginning of the “golden age of America” and the end of its “decline,” China is asserting itself.
“Inadvertently, the Trump administration may be weakening America’s positioning in the world relative to China,” York University’s Chin said.
At least on the climate front, China has been positioning itself as a green leader for years, undertaking initiatives aimed at achieving its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 — including investing in renewable energy and leading the world in electric vehicles and batteries. That’s despite still being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, responsible for a third of the world’s emissions.
But this positioning, however strategic, is coming out of necessity, said Yongjing Zhang, an associate professor of economics and politics at the University of Ottawa.
“China really cares about climate change,” Zhang said, adding that the country is now suffering from the “cost” of its rapid development. “No matter what’s happening with other countries, China will [address it].”
Simply put, it has no choice.
Global health security
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Guo also expressed strong support for the World Health Organization following Trump’s announcement, saying China will “as always, support the WHO in fulfilling its duty, deepening international co-operation in public health.”
Trump accused the institution, a United Nations agency, of being biased toward China and criticized its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic — as he did during his first term in power, when he also moved to extract the U.S. Joe BIden, who succeeded Trump as president following his first term, later reversed the decision.
However, China’s future role in the health sphere is more unclear, despite its messaging. The U.S. is by far the agency’s largest financial backer, accounting for about 18 per cent of its overall funding. The WHO’s most recent budget for 2024-25 was $6.8 billion US.
It is currently unclear how that financial void would be filled, as experts have warned the move could weaken the security of global public health — and could weaken the world’s defences against future pandemics and infectious diseases.
Being allies ‘means nothing now’
What is emerging in the early days of Trump’s presidency are indications that American allies are increasingly concerned about what a more confident Trump would mean in his second term, considering his unpredictability.
“You have to throw the terms of friendship and allies out the window,” said Lynette Ong, a distinguished professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. “That means nothing now.”
Ong said while China could very well assert itself, she would like to see more evidence of the country putting its words into action.
But York University’s Chin said U.S. isolationism will ultimately mean other countries will face a decision in the alliance system.
“It’s choosing between aligning themselves with America moving forward or some multi-polar set of options,” he said.
Those options, Chin said, could include the BRICS countries, of which China and Russia are a part.
U.S. President Donald Trump will not impose his promised tariffs on Canada, Mexico or China on his first day in office, according to multiple U.S. reports, giving this country something of a reprieve, at least for now.
“If you’re in the West, you might see this as a threat to the so-called rules-based international order,” he said. “But if you’re in the rest of the world, you might say some of these changes may in fact be improvements.”
As Trump threatens higher tariffs for countries like China, Canada and Mexico, China reduced tariffs on hundreds of goods this month coming into the country. And regardless of motivation, Chin suggests it may be just one reason other nations may bolster relations with the country while the U.S. distances itself.
