Key events:
Northern Ireland and Wales see fastest house price inflation
Here’s a regional breakdown of UK house price growth from Halifax:
- Northern Ireland once again topped the table for annual house price inflation, up by 15.2%, equating to an average property price of £187,833.
- Wales also continues to record a strong rate of annual growth, up by 14.3%, with an average property cost of £219,281.
- Meanwhile the South West saw the highest annual house price growth of any region in England, at 14.2%, where a typical home now costs £308,128.
- Scotland too saw an increase in the rate of annual house price inflation, up to 9.9%. A Scottish home now costs an average of £201,549, breaking through £200,000 for the first time in history.
- London continues to lag behind other regions in terms of annual house price inflation (+7.1%), though with an average property price of £547,031 it remains by far the most expensive place in the UK to buy a home.
Shares in Persimmon have dropped 5% in early trading, after telling the City it built fewer homes than expected in January-June.
Persimmon: House completions held back by delays and shortages
Planning delays, problems obtaining materials, and a shortage of construction workers slowed the number of houses which Persimmon it could build this year.
Britain’s biggest housebuilder reports that it completed 6,652 houses in the first half of 2022, slightly less than expected.
That’s down from 7,406 in the first half of 2021, pulling Persimmon’s revenues down to £1.69bn from £1.84bn.
But despite this, Persimmon expects profits for H1 to be ‘modestly above’ its expectations.
Dean Finch, Persimmon’s chief executive, said:
As we rebuild our outlet position, delays in the planning system, disruption in material supply chains and challenges in securing labour have impacted completions in the period.
We anticipate, however, profit at the half year to be modestly above our expectations reflecting strong demand and positive pricing conditions.
The sheer lack of houses on the market has kept driving prices up, experts agree.
Here’s Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman:
‘Despite concerns over the rising cost of living and interest rates, the excess demand over supply continues to hold sway and is driving activity.
The number of appraisals and listings is increasing but not fast enough to keep up as sellers try to take advantage of the market peak, or at close to it as possible, but transactions are slowing and lengthening.
‘Looking forward, we expect the market won’t be immune to changes in the wider economy and are already seeing signs of a rebalancing but no evidence of major corrections in prices for the time being at least.’
And Jason Tebb, CEO of property search website OnTheMarket.com:
The supply-demand imbalance is behind the continued rise in prices, although this is slowly improving as more stock becomes available. Signs of an inevitable, yet subtle, rebalancing of the market, are already evident.
The ‘new normal’, an elevated version of the pre-pandemic market, continues, with serious property seekers still determined to move.”
Some snap reaction:
The Halifax says average house prices climbed £18,849 in the first half of 2022. That works out at a staggering £104 rise a day.
— simon read (@simonnread) July 7, 2022
Halifax house price index: UK prices up 13% in year to June, highest since 2004:
“Scotland saw an increase in the rate of annual house price inflation, up to 9.9%. A Scottish home now costs an average of £201,549, breaking through £200k for the first time in history”— Douglas Fraser✒️🎥🎙 (@BBCDouglasF) July 7, 2022
Halifax: House price growth likely to slow
Despite continuing to climb in June, house prices inflation will surely slow as the squeeze intensifies.
Halifax managing director Russell Galley says:
“Of course, the housing market will not remain immune from the challenging economic environment. But for now it continues to demonstrate – as it has done over the last couple of years – the unique combination of factors impacting prices.
One of these remains the huge shift in demand towards bigger properties, with average prices for detached houses rising by almost twice the rate of flats over the past year (+13.9% vs +7.6%).
In time though increased pressure on household budgets from inflation and higher interest rates should weigh more heavily on the housing market, given the impact this has on affordability. Our latest research found that the strong rise in property prices over the last two years, coupled with much slower wage growth, has already pushed the house price to income ratio up to a record level.
So while it may come later than previously anticipated, a slowing of house price growth should still be expected in the months ahead.”
Introduction: UK property prices up 1.8% in June despite squeeze
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy, the financial markets and the cost of living crisis.
UK house price inflation accelerated last month despite the cost of living squeeze, mortgage lender Halifax has reported this morning.
Halifax’s latest house price index shows that prices jumped by 13% in the year to June — the fastest since late 2004 — up from 10.7% in May. This took the average price to a new record high of nearly £295,000, even as interest rates rose and inflation surged ahead of incomes.
British housebuilder Persimmon also sounds confident this morning, forecasting robust demand for new homes, despite predictions of an impending slowdown in the housing sector.
In monthly terms, Halifax says, prices rose by 1.8% after a 1.2% increase in May from April as the “market shows resilience”. That’s the fastest growth since 2007.
Prices have now risen for 12 months in a row, on Halifax’s index, points out property agent Emma Fildes of BrickWeaver.
Halifax says:
- House prices increased by 1.8% in June, the twelfth consecutive monthly rise
- Annual growth rate of 13% is the highest since late 2004
- Typical property now costs £294,845
- Northern Ireland continues to post the strongest growth in the UK.
Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifaxsays prices are being supported shortages of properties, and by wealthier families, who are not being hit as hard by the cost of living crisis.
“The UK housing market defied any expectations of a slowdown, with average property prices up 1.8% in June, the biggest monthly rise since early 2007. This means house prices have now risen every month over the last year, and are up by 6.8% or £18,849 in cash terms so far in 2022, pushing the typical UK house price to another record high of £294,845.
The supply-demand imbalance continues to be the reason house prices are rising so sharply. Demand is still strong – though activity levels have slowed to be in line with pre-Covid averages – while the stock of available properties for sale remains extremely low.
Property prices so far appear to have been largely insulated from the cost of living squeeze.
This is partly because, right now, the rise in the cost of living is being felt most by people on lower incomes, who are typically less active in buying and selling houses. In contrast, higher earners are likely to be able to use extra funds saved during the pandemic, with latest industry data showing that mortgage lending has increased by the highest amount since last September.
Also coming up today
We’re poised for the Competition and Markets Authority to release its report on the fuel retail market.
The inquiry, requested by business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng last month, will focus on whether the 5p fuel duty cut announced in March by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was being passed on to consumers.
After hitting its lowest level since the start of the pandemic yesterday, the pound is hovering around $1.195 this morning as investors watch Boris Johnson grip desperately onto power.
European stock markets are set for a strong open, having dropped sharply earlier this week on growing concerns of a recession.
Britain’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibilitypublishes an annual report on the long-term sustainability of the public finances and the fiscal risks facing the UK.
That’ll show the challenge facing new chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, as he hints that a planned rise in corporation tax could be reduced or ditched.
Sainsbury’s shareholders will vote on whether the UK’s second largest supermarket should become a Living Wage employer, at its AGM today.
The resolution, backed by a coalition of investors including Legal & General Investment Management, Coutts & Co, and the Coal Pensions Board, calls on Sainsbury’s to pay the independently set living wage for all staff and contracted workers.
Sainsbury’s has raised pay for its 171,000 direct employees across more than 1,400 stores in the UK to the living wage, but not contractors.
The agenda
- 7am BST: Halifax index of UK house prices in June
- 9.30am BST: UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its Fiscal risks and sustainability report
- 9.30am BST: ONS weekly real-time indicators of economic activity and social change
- 11am BST: Sainsbury’s AGM begins
- 12.30pm BST: ECB publishes accounts of its last monetary policy meeting
- 1.30pm BST: US trade data for May
- 5pm BST: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech on ‘The Economic situation and monetary policy’.
