Mr Hogan, who has served in his current role since 2014, is thought to be keen on a job which would represent a significant promotion. He met with Ms Von der Leyen for talks last week, although the former German defence minister has not commented on the substance of their discussions.
However, the Irish Independent, citing a Brussels source, suggested she may make an announcement as early as this week.
Dr Ray Bassett, the former Irish ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, told Express.co.uk: “It would be a major loss of face for him if he fails to secure the trade portfolio but I would regard the story as essentially kite flying.
“However, Hogan has been very Europhile throughout Brexit and would have a strong claim to be rewarded.”
Speaking in March, Mr Hogan launched a furious attack on plans unveiled by then-Prime Minister Theresa May which would see import duties waived on goods entering Northern Ireland across the border with the Republic.
Mr Hogan branded the plan “a stunt” which was incompatible with WTO rules – but Dr Bassett said: “If he secures the post, I imagine he would be more flexible than in Agriculture.
“It would be very much in Ireland’s interest that the UK gets a good deal once Brexit is secured so I really don’t think it would be bad for the UK if Hogan is appointed to the position.
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“However, I would not take it as a given but more a strong aspiration at this stage.”
Even so, Mr Hogan is unlikely to see eye to eye with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, having launched a stinging attack him last month.
Mr Hogan said: “If the UK fails to prevent a crash-out Brexit they should be under no illusion regarding the foul atmosphere they will create with their EU partners and the serious consequences this will have for negotiating any future trade agreement.
“The UK continues to negotiate based on its experience of being an EU member.
“This misses the point completely: from the moment the UK came back to Brussels with the infamous red lines, the EU has negotiated on the basis of the UK opting for third-country status.
“Prime Minister Johnson’s hero is Winston Churchill and he seems to view himself as a modern-day Churchill.
“However, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK Government’s only Churchillian legacy will be: never have so far done so much damage to so many.”
He also accused the UK Government “gambling with peace and the Good Friday Agreement”.
Mr Johnson accused the EU of a “deliberate personal attack” in the wake the Irish commissioner’s speech.
Ms von der Leyen is believed to be preparing a major shake-up of the Commission when she officially takes up her post in November
She plans to allow vice presidents Frans Timmermans and Margrethe Vestager to influence and set legislation going forward.
Until now, Ms von der Leyen’s predecessor Jean-Claude Juncker and the Commission’s former secretary-general Martin Selmayr, operated a system whereby they managed the bloc from a centralised position – something she is apparently keen to change.
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