Look around Europe’s big clubs, and you’ll see a dearth of center-forwards. Real Madrid converted a left-winger to number nine last season (Kylian Mbappé). Arsenal used an attacking midfielder (Kai Havertz), until he got injured, and then another attacking midfielder (Mikel Merino). Paris Saint-Germain won the Champions League after turning a wide forward into a center-forward (Ousmane Dembélé).
Barcelona do have a central striker (Robert Lewandowski), but he turns 37 this summer. Liverpool have one too (Darwin Núñez), but he’s usually on the bench, they’re trying to get rid of him and, in any case, they often start with a wide forward (Luis DÃaz) in that role. Bayern Munich (Harry Kane) and Chelsea (Nico Jackson) both have one, but neither club has anyone credible to back them up.
If free markets are supposed to address shortages, something’s wrong with the “invisible hand” here. It’s a bit odd that the same names always turn up in transfer rumors — mostly Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko and, of course, Sporting’s ubiquitous Viktor Gyökeres — when there are other options out there. Part of it is the way intermediaries (the brokers who grease the transfer market wheels) operate. Some like to talk (at lot), some do not unless the deal is done. It’s not hard to figure out to which category the guys flogging Sesko and Gyokeres belong.
But there are two center-forwards who are, quite clearly, available for transfer: Juventus’ Dusan Vlahovic and Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, who spent last year on loan at Galatasaray. Both are rare talents and, at 25 and 26 respectively, both have plenty of prime years ahead of them. Yet both are trapped in somewhat unusual contractual situations that make a move complicated, even though it would be in everyone’s best interest.
How Osimhen got stuck
Osimhen was just 21 when he left Lille for Napoli in July of 2020, in a deal — one that would later be investigated — worth €70m ($80m) with up to another €10m ($11.4m) in bonuses. (Roughly the same as Vlahovic, in a weird cosmic coincidence.)
He scored 46 goals in his first 100 appearances in his first three years, and then another 48 in 71 in 2022-23 and 2023-24. Along the way, he carried Nigeria (for whom he’s already the second leading all-time scorer) to the final of the Africa Cup of Nations and Napoli to their first title since the Maradona Era. Osimhen was also named Serie A Player of the Year and African Footballer of the Year.
So how did he end up at Galatasaray last season? Well, Napoli planned to move him in the summer of 2024, since he had just two years left on his contract and had not agreed an extension. To force the point home, they signed his replacement (Romelu Lukaku) and made it clear that since he didn’t sign an extension, he’d have to find another club.
When that didn’t happen — he did have suitors, but none that would meet Napoli’s valuation at the time — by the time the transfer window shut, their game of chicken backfired. Lucky for them (and Osimhen), the Turkish window was still open, so they worked out an agreement where they extended his contract for another year (through 2027) to preserve his transfer value and sent him to Galatasaray, where he could get playing time.
Osimhen was key to Galatasaray winning the domestic Double, scoring 37 goals in 41 appearances in all competitions. It was a campaign that showed he’s definitely not lost his scoring touch, but his game goes well beyond goals. He’s fast, powerful, hard-working and charismatic. Most Napoli fans would happily take him back in place of Lukaku in a heartbeat — coach Antonio Conte too, if you gave him truth serum.
Vlahovic, Juventus at a crossroads
The Serbia international signed for Juventus on his 22nd birthday, moving from Fiorentina in January 2022 in a deal worth €70m ($80m) plus €10m ($11.4m) in bonuses, and took the No. 7 jersey vacated by a certain Cristiano Ronaldo. He committed to a deal through 2026 that would initially pay him €14m ($16m) a season gross, but would balloon to €24m ($27.4m) in the final two years.
Now, €24m is a huge number. Were he a Premier League footballer, he’d be the second-highest paid after Man City’s Erling Haaland.
Why did Juventus agree to such a deal? Maybe they thought they’d be so successful with him that it would turn out to be a bargain. Maybe their plan was to transfer him elsewhere after 2½ years, who knows. But the point is, it’s out of whack with his production and what the club — who have racked up huge losses in recent years — can afford.
Juventus tried to shift him last summer, but found no takers, probably because clubs were scared off by his salary. And no player would want to take a pay cut when you’re owed that much over the next two seasons. Now, however, Vlahovic has a year left on that contract, and Juve have a problem. They either extend him — which isn’t easy, since it would mean convincing him to take a hefty pay cut — or they move him on and recoup a transfer fee.
The knock on Vlahovic is that he has had niggling injuries and hasn’t been anywhere near as prolific at Juve (56 goals in 143 appearances) as he was in his final two seasons at Fiorentina, when he notched 41 in 64. That is true, but context matters and he had three different managers in three-and-a-half years, one of whom (Thiago Motta) patently didn’t rate him. In a down year, he still managed 15 goals in all competitions at a rate of 0.50 per 90, which isn’t bad.
What gets you excited about Vlahovic is the eye test. He’s big (6-foot-3), strong and mean. He can run all day, he works his backside off and he has a ridiculously good left foot. Sure, he needs some nurturing, but the upside is huge.
What happens next?
So how much of a fee would either player command? Transfermarkt (as an estimate) pegs Osimhen at €70m, with Vlahovic at €45m, but hey: everything is negotiable.
You assume clubs are scared off by both players’ wages — Osimhen clocks in at a whopping $22m a year, or around £300,000 a week — but there’s a human reality at play here too. These are footballers and they want to play.
Vlahovic knows — or should know — that nobody will pay him what he’s earning at Juventus. Osimhen knows — or should know — that a move to a big club in a major league will bring its own benefits in terms of exposure and endorsements, as well as professional satisfaction. (He has repeatedly turned down moves to Saudi Arabia — most recently earlier this week, after Napoli reportedly accepted a €75m offer from Al-Hilal — so presumably he’s motivated to win on the big stage rather than collecting a pay check in the desert. Things could change, of course — maybe he gets a Saudi offer he can’t refuse, and we know Galatasaray would love to have him back on loan, though Napoli less so — but he’s holding fast at the moment.)
Could it be that Napoli and Juventus’ demands are too high right now? Probably, but the clock is ticking for both clubs. Barring a hugely unlikely rapprochement, Napoli do not want to be stuck with Osimhen for another season, and it’s hard to see them pull off the “loan-plus-extension” trick two summers in a row. If Juve don’t shift Vlahovic, they risk losing one of their biggest assets for nothing, without the funds to replace him, and while paying him a demented salary as well.
It’s worth remembering that there’s a World Cup coming up next summer, too. There’s room to maneuver, from all sides, and maybe a lesson about getting a little too creative with your contracts.
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