Vietnam continues to expand and develop its outposts in the Spratly Islands at a rapid pace, putting it on track to surpass the amount of land reclaimed by China, according to a leading U.S. think tank.
In a report published Friday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said that since the start of the year, Vietnam “has expanded its island-building efforts to eight features previously untouched by the current round of reclamation that Hanoi began in 2021.”
Satellite photographs analyzed by AMTI, which is run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., show that Hanoi has undertaken dredging and landfill work at Alison Reef, Collins Reef, East Reef, Landsdowne Reef, and Petley Reef, “all of which had previously housed only small concrete pillbox structures.”
The work means that “all 21 Vietnamese-occupied rocks and low-tide elevations in the Spratly Islands have now been expanded to include artificial land,” the report stated, up from just 10 four years ago.
The Spratly Islands, one of the main subjects of contention in the South China Sea, are claimed in whole or in part by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.
During its last analysis of Vietnam’s island-building in March, AMTI reported that Vietnam had created dredging and landfill in disputed areas of the South China Sea of approximately 3,319 acres, nearly three-quarters of the 4,650 acres reclaimed by China.
“Reclamation at these eight new features all but ensures that Vietnam will match – and likely surpass –the scale of Beijing’s island-building,” the new report stated.
The report stated that new expansion has begun at Amboyna Cay, Grierson Reef, and West Reef, features that “already hosted medium-sized artificial islands by virtue of earlier rounds of Vietnamese dredging.”
Infrastructure, including munitions storage depots, is also now beginning to appear on Vietnam-occupied reefs where dredging work is approaching completion. These include Barque Canada Reef, Discovery Great Reef, Ladd Reef, Namyit Island, Pearson Reef, Sand Cay, and Tennent Reef, each of which also features “a recurring group of six buildings arranged in an identical pattern on three sides of a central courtyard.”
While the purpose of these structures remains unclear, AMTI said that their positioning seems to disprove earlier speculation that Vietnam was planning to build full-length runways on some of the longer features. According to the current satellite evidence, the runway at Barque Canada, noted by AMTI in its past analyses, “is therefore likely the only one being constructed, joining Vietnam’s sole existing airstrip at Spratly Island.”
The AMTI report suggests that Vietnam’s desire to create “facts on the ground” in the Spratly Islands is moving forward at a fast pace. As I noted following the release of the AMTI’s most recent analysis in March, it is somewhat surprising that Hanoi’s efforts have not prompted much of a response from China, which has responded with considerable force to minor actions by the Philippines, including attempts to resupply forces stationed on its own claimed features in the South China Sea.
While such a response cannot be ruled out in the event of a broader deterioration of relations between China and Vietnam, it seems that Beijing prefers to focus its coercive actions on the Philippines, which, as a U.S. security ally, it perhaps inevitably views as a proxy for a broader superpower competition. For the time being, both Hanoi and Beijing seem willing to accept, if only tacitly, a gradual hardening of a de facto border in the Spratlys.
