By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) – What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Buoyant stock markets and an event-free Monday are allowing investors to prep for the three big events of the week: Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report, the China trade deadline and Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska.
Doubts about the strength of the jobs market and revolving doors on the Federal Reserve board have traders betting on a Fed rate cut next month. Tuesday’s consumer price report for July is one of the few data sets that could alter that thinking as the potential price impact of tariffs is examined.
The embattled Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the numbers, and the consensus forecast is for annual headline and core CPI gains to tick up a tenth each to 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively, both well above the Fed’s 2% target and heading in the wrong direction.
* Wall Street futures and Treasuries were both firmer ahead of the big inflation number, with bond market volatility gauges at their lowest in three years and last week’s S&P 500 gains bringing the index back within 1% of all-time highs. The dollar was largely flat.
* Last week’s U.S. tariff day passed without causing major market moves, but Tuesday brings a separate deadline on U.S.-China trade as President Donald Trump decides whether to extend the existing truce or let tariffs shoot back up to triple-digit figures. Trump on Sunday urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases, sending Chicago soybean prices higher, and – in a highly unusual move – Nvidia and AMD reportedly agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of their revenue from sales to China of advanced AI chips such as Nvidia’s H20. Chinese stocks were a touch higher ahead of the deadline.
* Bitcoin surged 4% to a high of $122,308 on Monday, back within sight of the July 14 record of $123,153, in what appeared like a delayed reaction to Trump’s executive order last week enabling crypto holdings to be held in U.S. retirement accounts.
* Finally, Friday’s Alaska summit will be watched closely by European markets monitoring possible breakthroughs on ending the Ukraine war.
For today’s deep dive, I’ll discuss why whatever happens at September’s Fed meeting matters less than concerns about a potential rethink of the Fed’s entire structure.
Today’s Market Minute
* Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales to China of advanced computer chips like Nvidia’s H20 that are used for artificial intelligence applications, a U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday.
