Clouds broke over Seattle this month, pillars of sunshine crashed to the ground, and kaleidoscopes of light and color exploded through the waters of Puget Sound and Lake Washington.
People emerged from their homes without hooded jackets or umbrellas, like bears tentatively poking a head out of their hibernation den earlier than expected. They basked in the warmth and watched carelessly as the Northwest shook itself back to life.
Yeah, that’s not normal.
This January is on track to be one of the five driest on record in Seattle, said Karin Bumbaco, deputy state climatologist. Snowpack lags across much of Washington and the statewide drought emergency persists, foreshadowing a potentially hazardous summer. Federal reservoirs sit at a fraction of their normal capacity.
“Ominous is the word I have been using,” Scott Revell, who manages the Roza Irrigation District in the Yakima River Basin, said in a text.
Rising temperatures are turning much of Washington’s snow into rainfall, throwing a wrench into the seasonal fluctuations on which we all rely. Already, shifts in the state’s hydrology have resulted in severe water cuts for farmers, higher electricity rates and the death of salmon.
The effects of continuing droughts compound year after year as well. Washington suffered from dry years in 2023 and 2024, parching the soils and draining the reservoirs. The deeper the water deficit at the start of the year, the harder it is to climb out of the hole, Bumbaco said.
We’re not yet at the point where Washington needs a miracle to recover, Bumbaco said. A bit of snow might even be on the way in the days ahead.
But Washington needs more than a little snow to get back on pace.
Ironically enough, the sunny and pleasant weather is exactly what we don’t need.
Coming off the heels of the hottest year yet recorded for global temperatures, January actually has been a little colder, Bumbaco said. But it’s also been particularly dry.
Parts of the Seattle area have seen just over a quarter of normal precipitation over the month, said Caroline Mellor, drought coordinator with Washington’s Department of Ecology.
Climatologists had hoped La Niña conditions would bring in cool and wet weather, a respite from El Niño, which exacerbated the hot, dry summer last year. But so far La Niña has mostly amounted to La “Nada.”
Particularly concerning are the north and central Puget Sound regions, which typically see 10.4 inches and 9.1 inches of snow in January, respectively, Bumbaco said. This year, though, they’ve built up 2.4 inches and 2.7 inches, respectively.
“It’s not great,” she said.
The Olympic Peninsula currently sits at around 81% of normal snowpack, while the upper and central Columbia River basin sits at 86% and 75% of normal snowpack, according to the latest data from the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service.
A glint of optimism remains in portions of the Yakima River Basin and lower Columbia, which sit closer to normal snowpack levels, Bumbaco said.
Much in Washington depends on the accumulation of a healthy snowpack, which melts gradually as spring turns to summer. The state’s hydropower system, drinking water and irrigation all depend on that slow release of water heading into the dry months, not to mention the landscape and wildlife like salmon, which all evolved around the region’s long-standing climate.
Currently, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reservoirs in Washington sit at about 35% of their normal levels for this time of year, Mellor said.
Rivers and streams across the state are running low too, said Amy Burke, senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service. Broad swaths of these waterways are running at three-quarters their normal volume or lower. Some are flowing with less than half their normal volume.
Ecology declared a drought emergency last April, unlocking emergency funds ahead of the dry and hot summer (it also declared an emergency in 2023). Grant requests are still coming in to help communities, businesses and farmers recover from last summer, Mellor said. People in the Yakima River Basin were hit particularly hard.
If conditions don’t turn around, Mellor said she’s concerned about another drought this summer, which could, in turn, lead to another emergency declaration.
State officials have no immediate plans to rescind the 2024 emergency declaration ahead of its April 15 expiration date, Mellor said. Around that time they’ll have to consider whether an entirely new emergency declaration would be needed.
Time still remains for recovery, Mellor said. Washington’s snowpack generally peaks around April 1.
