2024 on track to be warmest year on record

As the world grapples with the escalating impact of climate change, 2024 is set to be the warmest year on record, a disturbing milestone according to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

With months of exceptionally high global temperatures, rising greenhouse gas emissions, and an intensifying El Niño event, the WMO’s State of the Climate 2024 update sounds a red alert, urging immediate global action to tackle the climate crisis.

The WMO’s report reveals that from January to September, the global average temperature was 1.54°C (±0.13°C) above pre-industrial levels. This marks an alarming acceleration in the pace of warming, driven in part by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which has further amplified global temperatures.

The past decade (2015-2024) is now officially the warmest on record, with 2024 poised to exceed the record set by 2023. This unprecedented streak of heat signals a climate crisis that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

“Climate catastrophe is hammering health, widening inequalities, harming sustainable development, and rocking the foundations of peace. The vulnerable are hardest hit,” warned UN Secretary-General António Guterres, reflecting the growing concern over the far-reaching consequences of climate change.

Warming beyond 1.5°C: A grave warning

While the short-term spikes in global temperatures have temporarily surpassed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement, the WMO was quick to clarify that this does not mean the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is out of reach.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasised that the Paris Agreement targets refer to long-term temperature averages, not short-term fluctuations and that global warming levels are still below 1.5°C over the long term.

It is crucial to distinguish between short-term temperature fluctuations — such as those driven by the current El Niño event — and the long-term trend of global warming. The Paris Agreement’s goal is focused on sustained global temperature averages over decades, not temporary anomalies. Therefore, while 2024 may see brief exceedances of the 1.5°C threshold, it does not mean the longer-term target is out of reach.

However, Saulo cautioned that even small increases in global temperatures can exacerbate the risks of climate extremes, including deadly heat waves, intense storms, and catastrophic floods. “Every additional increment of global warming increases climate extremes, impacts, and risks,” she said, highlighting the urgency of keeping global warming well below 2°C, ideally limiting it to 1.5°C.

The ocean is heating up

A key indicator of climate change is the continued warming of the oceans, which have absorbed more than 90% of the heat accumulated in the Earth system. In 2023, ocean heat content reached the highest levels on record, and 2024 data suggests this trend is continuing.

From 2005 to 2023, the ocean absorbed an average of approximately 3.1 million terawatt-hours (TWh) of heat annually — more than 18 times the world’s total energy consumption in 2023.

This oceanic heat is causing irreversible changes in the climate system, with significant implications for marine ecosystems, weather patterns, and global sea levels.

Rising sea levels and accelerating ice melt

The WMO’s report also underscores the alarming acceleration of sea-level rise, which is driven by both the thermal expansion of warming oceans and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.

From 2014 to 2023, global mean sea level rose at a rate of 4.77 mm per year, more than double the rate observed between 1993 and 2002. Preliminary data for 2024 shows this rate continues, though the decline of El Niño has slowed the rise slightly.

Glacier loss is also at record levels, with glaciers losing 1.2 meters of ice water equivalent in 2023 — the largest loss since measurements began in 1953. This dramatic ice melt, particularly in North America and Europe, is contributing to both sea level rise and the loss of freshwater resources that many regions rely on.

Extreme weather and economic toll

The WMO’s report paints a bleak picture of the global impacts of extreme weather events. From deadly heat waves and record-breaking floods to raging wildfires and intense tropical storms, the climate crisis has wreaked havoc on communities worldwide. These events are not only causing tragic loss of life but are also undermining economic stability, exacerbating food insecurity, and displacing millions of people.

In particular, the 2024 report highlights how extreme weather patterns worsened by El Niño have disproportionately impacted vulnerable populations, compounding the effects of inequality and poverty. “The record-breaking rainfall and flooding, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat, relentless drought, and raging wildfires that we have seen in different parts of the world this year are unfortunately our new reality and a foretaste of our future,” said Saulo.

Tracking climate change

As the WMO continues to monitor global climate trends, it stresses the importance of careful tracking and communication of warming levels to help policymakers and stakeholders make informed decisions.

The WMO has established an international team of experts to assess the current trajectory of global temperatures, which is now estimated to be about 1.3°C above the pre-industrial baseline — a figure that underscores the urgency of further efforts to mitigate warming.

The role of greenhouse gases and renewed urgency for action

One of the primary drivers of this rapid warming is the continuing rise in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2).

Data from 2023 shows that atmospheric CO2 levels reached record highs, increasing from around 278 ppm in 1750 to 420 ppm in 2023, a 51 per cent rise. This spike in CO2 concentration traps heat in the atmosphere, leading to higher global temperatures and more extreme weather events.

As the WMO and other climate organisations stress, the continued rise in greenhouse gas levels necessitates immediate and sustained action to curb emissions and transition to renewable energy. This includes strengthening global climate services and early warning systems, which have made notable progress in recent years.

The WMO’s ‘Early Warnings for Al’ initiative, aimed at ensuring every person is protected from hazardous weather events by 2027, has seen positive advances, with 108 countries now reporting multi-hazard early warning systems.

A call for global action

The WMO’s State of the Climate 2024 report paints a stark picture of a world increasingly ravaged by the effects of climate change.

With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense, rising sea levels, and accelerating ice loss, it is clear that the need for urgent action has never been more pressing. Governments, businesses, and individuals must work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, strengthen adaptation measures, and accelerate the transition to a more sustainable, resilient global economy.

As we enter 2025, the trajectory of climate change will depend largely on the steps taken today. The WMO’s report offers a sobering reminder that the window to act is closing fast — and the time for change is now.