What’s happening in Iran? Breaking down the deadly protests shaking the country

Experts say it poses one of the biggest challenges to Iran’s clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Nationwide protests have been shaking Iran for weeks. They started Dec. 28 in response to soaring prices, then turned into wider anti-government protests against the clerical rulers who have governed the country for nearly 50 years.

More than 500 people have died so far in the unrest, according to a rights group. Meanwhile, the U.S. is threatening military action, Iran has threatened retaliation if the U.S. attacks, internet and phone systems have been cut, and there are rallies worldwide in support of the protests.

“What we’re watching is extraordinary. Despite bullets, arrests and complete internet blackouts, ordinary Iranians are still risking everything for freedom,” Parmida Barez, an Iranian Canadian writer and activist, told CBC News Network Saturday.

“These protests are different than what we’ve seen in years past, primarily because they’re driven by economic hardship,” Kamran Bokhari, senior director of the Washington, D.C.-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, recently told CBC’s Hanomansing Tonight.

So, what is going on? Is this a turning point for the people of Iran?

Let’s break it down.

Why did the demonstrations start?

The protests were initially triggered by rampant inflation.

Specifically, it was sparked Dec. 28 by shopkeepers shutting their shops because the currency had collapsed, making it impossible for them to do business, BBC chief international correspondent Lyse Doucet recently explained on the BBC Newscast podcast.

The prices of basic items like chicken and cooking oil had spiked dramatically, with some items disappearing from shelves entirely, according to CNN.

But why? Well, as The Associated Press explains, Tehran is still reeling from its 12-day war with Israel in June that saw the United States bomb three Iranian nuclear sites.

Economic pressure — which has intensified since September, when the United Nations reimposed sanctions on the country over its nuclear program — has sent Iran’s rial currency into freefall, now trading at over 1.4 million IRR to $1.

The collapse of the rial led to a widening economic crisis. In addition, in December Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidized gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas and further pressuring the population. 

And the Central Bank of Iran drastically reduced the subsidized exchange rates for what it offers to importers and producers.

From there, the protests morphed into something bigger.

“Every new wave of unrest leaves tinder, such that when the spark is lit, it lights the embers of the last uprising,” BBC’s Doucet said.

“So it quickly spread from being protests and strikes over the cost of living, over soaring inflation … to slogans being chanted on the streets, like ‘death to the dictator.'”

How big are the protests now?

It’s hard to say exactly because Iranian state media has provided little information, the government hasn’t released casualty figures. The ongoing internet shutdown and block on international calls also make it difficult for journalists to independently assess what’s happening.

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which relies on an activist network inside Iran, reported on Sunday that 585 protests have taken place in 186 cities across all of the country’s 31 provinces. 

They added the death toll has reached 544, and “dozens of additional cases remain under review.” Some 10,680 people have been sent to prisons following arrests, according to HRANA.

All told, this would make these protests the biggest in Iran since 2022, according to CNN. That’s when the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody launched nationwide protests against the country’s conservative Islamic theocracy.

Why did the protests broaden?

Iran has been a theocracy since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution, when clerics toppled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This led to the formation of the Islamic Republic led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and then his son, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s bazaar merchants and trader class were the financial backbone of the revolution. Now, decades later, they’ve turned against the clerics they helped bring to power.

Economic disparities between ordinary Iranians and the clerical and security elite, along with economic mismanagement and state corruption, have fanned discontent amid the economic crisis, according to Reuters.

“This is a situation where you sort of see not just the youth protesting,” Bokhari, with the New Lines Institute, told CBC.

Many people are now calling for sweeping political change, with slogans such as “down with the dictator,” a reference to Khamenei. And some have been voicing support for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last shah of Iran, who has become a prominent voice spurring on protesters. 

How has Iran responded?

As the New York Times reports, Iran’s government initially signalled a willingness to listen. It had announced plans to offer its citizens a monthly allowance of about one million Iranian tomans to alleviate economic pressure — the equivalent of about $11 Cdn per month.

The government also initially tried to distinguish between rioters and what it views as legitimate protesters, Bokhari told CBC.

“I think they gave up on that, which is why they cracked down so severely with the internet blackout and reports coming in of use of force.”

On Friday, Iran’s judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei vowed that punishment for protesters “will be decisive, maximum and without any legal leniency,” according to Reuters. The New York Times adds that he also warned that “all criminals involved” would be considered an “enemy of God.”

Raha Bahreini, Amnesty International’s Iran researcher in London, told CBC on Friday that Iranian authorities had already killed dozens of protesters and bystanders.

Bahreini said Amnesty investigations in 13 cities across eight provinces found that security forces including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the police had used assault rifles and shotguns loaded with metal pellets against protesters. 

How is the U.S. involved?

Trump has repeatedly pledged to strike Iran if protesters are killed, a threat that has taken on greater significance after the U.S. military raid that seized Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro.

Trump said on Sunday that Iran had called to negotiate on its disputed nuclear program. Iran said on Monday it is keeping communications open with the U.S. But, according to Reuters, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington against “a miscalculation.”

“Let us be clear: In the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories [Israel] as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target,” he said. 

Will this protest be any different?

Iran has faced several protests in recent years, but none have toppled the government. And as Reuters notes, despite the massive scale of these current protests, there are no signs of splits in the Shi’ite clerical leadership, military or security forces.

The regime is weak right now, but also unlikely to to collapse anytime soon, Bokhari told CBC News Network in a separate interview on Monday. However, he added, “something’s got to give.”

There’s already an internal process underway focused on the transition to a new supreme leader, he said, and added he thinks that’s where people should stay focused.

Still, Iranian Canadian author and activist Barez told CBC she believes Iran’s dismissal of protesters as terrorists, and saying that it won’t back down, shows the regime is threatened and weak.

“It sets the tone for them to … really crack down on Iranians,” Barez said.

“But Iranians are not backing down. They’ve seen this happen time and time again. The veil of fear has lifted.”