What Virginia’s special elections tell us about the bigger ballot box battles to come in 2025, 2026

Democrats held onto their narrow majorities in Virginia’s legislature as they won two of three special elections on Tuesday in the first ballot box showdowns of 2025.

The closely-watched contests were seen by the political world as the first gauge of the mood of voters since President-elect Trump’s convincing victory in November, in elections that also saw Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate and hold their fragile House majority.

They’re also viewed as an early barometer for high-profile gubernatorial showdowns later this year in Virginia and New Jersey and next year’s battle for Congress in the midterm elections.

The Associated Press projected that the Democrats would win both special elections in Loudon County, in northern Virginia.

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In a special state Senate election, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, currently a member of the state House, defeated Republican Tumay Harding. The seat became vacant after Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam was elected to Congress in November. 

And in a special state House race to fill Srinivasan’s vacant seat, Democrat JJ Singh, a small business owner and former congressional aide, topped Republican Ram Venkatachalam. 

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Loudon County, on the outer edges of the metropolitan area that surrounds the nation’s capital, in recent years has been an epicenter in the national debate over bathroom policy for transgender students and allowing them to play female sports. 

The one-time Republican-dominated county has trended for the Democrats over the past decade as Loudon’s population has continued to soar. Vice President Kamala Harris easily carried the county in November’s White House election, although Trump improved his showing compared to four years ago.

The Democrats’ margins in their two Loudon county victories on Tuesday were close to Harris’ winning margin over Trump in the county in November.

The third special election on Tuesday took place in a state Senate district in the central part of the state, where Republican Luther Cifers defeated Democrat Jack Trammell. 

The seat became vacant when state Sen. John McGuire, who with the support of Trump, narrowly edged U.S. Rep. Bob Good in a contentious GOP primary last June before winning election to Congress in November.

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Democrats will retain their 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and their 51-49 control of the state House of Delegates, during Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s final year in office.

Youngkin energized Republicans nationwide three years ago, as the first-time candidate who hailed from the party’s business wing edged out former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in 2021 to become the first GOP candidate in a dozen years to win a gubernatorial election in the one-time swing state that had trended towards the Democrats over the previous decade.

Virginia is unique due to its state law preventing governors from serving two consecutive four-year terms, so Youngkin cannot run for re-election next year.

Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states in the nation to hold gubernatorial elections in the year after a presidential election. Because of that, both contests receive outsized national attention, and Virginia in particular is often seen as a bellwether of the national political climate and how Americans feel about the party in the White House.

Asked what Tuesday’s election results mean for this year’s gubernatorial contests and next year’s midterms, veteran Virginia-based Republican strategist Zack Roday told Fox News “I hate to be boring about it but it’s just not a useful indicator yet. It’s just too early. It’s too close to the November elections. People are just not engaged.”

“The party in power in these off-year elections typically takes a hit, but nothing has shown that yet in the data that I’ve seen,” Roday added.

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Pointing to Cifer’s state Senate victory, longtime Virginia-based political scientist David Richards of the University of Lynchburg said “I think that shows that people are still behind Trump. We don’t see that backlash that some people say is coming.”

Nodding to Trump, Roday added that when it comes to Republicans on the ballot, “there’s no running away from him. He’s an asset electorally.”

The special elections were held a day after a winter storm slammed into Virginia.

“The winter weather ended up dampening the votes today,” Richards said. 

“Turnout will end up being a lot lower in person but the early voting was pretty healthy, especially for a special election,” he added.