India could become a significant and unexpected complication in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a peace deal on Ukraine.
The meeting at the end of August in Beijing between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping – with Russia’s blessing – could provide Moscow with precious wiggle room to stall or delay any ceasefire with Kyiv.
A closer Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle would also mean that possible new US sanctions against Moscow could be absorbed more easily.
It could pose a serious setback for Trump. If he loses the midterm elections next year, he could become a lame duck, throwing the US into a state of political uncertainty for the following two years.
Betting on American disarray until the new presidential vote in 2028 could be well in the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin. With a political victory in Ukraine now nearly out of reach, Putin could boast of the chaos he managed to spread in America and the wider West.
It is about the next three years, but it begins now and can be divided into two chapters: the allies and Putin’s strategy.
The allies
In the early months of Trump’s presidency, for the first time in the past eight decades, a fissure between America and its allies has emerged. This crack started about the defense of Ukraine, the US relationship with NATO and ties with Russia. American allies, both west and east of Russia, feel left behind, if not totally abandoned, by the US.
For nearly a century, America was the bulwark of their security. Now, for the first time, many of them seem to be adopting a dual strategy. In the short term, they are focused on managing Trump, while many have begun to consider long-term alternatives to a world order centered on America.
This long-term thinking is unprecedented among American allies since the end of World War II. While they always understood that American support might not always be absolute and that America could withdraw at some point, few believed that the American presence could disappear entirely.
There’s a difference between leaving Afghanistan or Vietnam after ten years of war and shrugging off security guarantees for Germany or Japan. Now, some may feel that any country could become another Afghanistan overnight, forsaken by sudden mood changes in Washington.
These shifts in thinking could have very significant medium- and long-term effects. America is not only a country but also a global system with a thin but essential balance between inside and outside. If America jeopardizes its international system to sustain itself, it risks losing both global influence and internal stability.
A concrete example of this shift can be seen in the next Xi-Modi summit. For over two decades, the US worked to pull India more closely into its strategic orbit. During Trump’s first term, this effort seemed to pay off, bolstered by a strong personal rapport between the American president and Prime Minister Modi.
However, after the recent brief border clash between China and Pakistan, something went wrong. India now faces higher US tariffs than China, a surprising reversal given that China was identified as America’s main adversary by Trump’s advisors before the presidential vote. The new US attitude probably prompted India to reconsider its relationship with China.
Of course, old China-India suspicions have not been buried. India just tested a medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, thus signaling it’s ready to confront China. At the same time, Xi made a surprise visit to Tibet, reaffirming Beijing’s sovereignty in the region neighboring India.
Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama – who turned 90 in July – has said his reincarnation will be born in India, which could give India a special role as de facto “guardian” of the new Lama (see here) and thus a say in Tibet. Moreover, the Modi-Xi summit is happening after the Indian Prime Minister will have visited Japan, famously wary of China.
Therefore, the rapprochement is occurring with great caution. But it’s happening, and it is happening under Russia’s watch. It’s unclear what consequences this Indian shift may have, or whether it will last, and how important it will be in the coming months and years. But the issue and implications go beyond India.
It reflects deep and growing doubts among US allies. The meeting between Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could be significant, as Tokyo is also concerned about its ties with America.
Even if a future American president changes course — or if Trump himself reverses his current approach — the precedent has been set: even close allies are starting to question whether the US remains fully committed.
This raises enormous questions for America, its allies and its adversaries. Uncertainty is growing, and the coming months ahead could be tense.
Moriarty Putin
The new tariff-driven situation could prove hazardous for America, even if some American politicians argue that it is necessary to replenish the country’s coffers. In truth, without a strong America, the American-led international order is also doomed. Yet the disruption could undermine decades of strides and efforts.
Compounding this are global and domestic campaigns against Trump. He is widely portrayed as unreliable and ineffective. As a result, a country led by such a figure is also seen as untrustworthy. And by extension, a nation that elects such a leader is viewed with suspicion.
The implication is that America is flawed, and democracy itself is suspect. This narrative is gaining traction both at home and abroad, isolating not just the presidency, but the United States as a whole.
Cui prodest? Who gains from this? Putin is losing politically and militarily in Ukraine. In Europe, his actions have created an unprecedented wave of unity, anti-Russian sentiment and military buildup.
In Asia, he is losing power and influence to China and even North Korea. Even loyal Belarus is growing afraid of Moscow. Ultimately, Russia risks losing everything: its geopolitical relevance, its influence, even its identity. As both East and West turn away, what may remain is a shrunken version of itself — a new Muscovy, confined to Moscow and a handful of surrounding regions.
Yet this is not the end of the story. Media coverage increasingly portrays Trump as subjecting the world to an ongoing reality show where the goal is not to reach any conclusion or agreement but to create perpetual drama, resulting in a collective neurosis around him. It’s thus unclear whether Trump genuinely wants a deal with Russia. Perhaps not — because reaching an agreement would end the drama.
This may not reflect the full reality, but it’s a message that’s being peddled around. By now, Trump should be aware that not only is Putin deceiving him, but that he might also be riding the ongoing global campaign against him. The stories of Trump being a Putin puppet suggest that Putin is some super Moriarty (Sherlock Holmes’ super villain) of international politics.
In this narrative, a United States led by a patently incompetent and Russian puppet president is evidence of America’s decline, foreshadowing a Russian overall victory. Putin would be foolish not to exploit this narrative – and he’s not foolish.
Trump, however, has proved time and again that he is practical and pragmatic in responding to market pressures and external forces. He could still reconsider his approach to Russia and on tariffs. The next few weeks could be pivotal as Trump prepares to meet Xi. Objectively, China is the greatest beneficiary of the current US-Russia conflict.
But Beijing shouldn’t gloat; it should be cautious and humble as things could suddenly turn upside down. American fissures could be fixed and Russia may be too quick to anticipate what card will be played next.
It’s a time of chaos; perhaps everyone should take a pause and seek some kind of truce. But stopping the merry-go-round is easier said than done. Trump could begin to pivot when he welcomes South Korea’s new President Lee Jae Myung to the White House on August 25.
This article first appeared on Appia Institute and is republished with permission. Read the original here.
