With prices down 47% year to date, Dogecoin‘s (DOGE 0.98%) Trump-inspired rally is quickly unraveling. While it is normal for volatile assets to give up some of their gains after a big move, the controversial meme coin is performing worse than many of its peers. Is this dip a buying opportunity or a signal for investors to run for the hills? Let’s dig deeper to find out what the next 12 months could have in store.
Extreme volatility
A rising tide can lift all boats, and the cryptocurrency industry is no exception. However, while digital asset prices tend to be highly correlated in the short term, over the long term, some patterns begin to emerge. Meme coins like Dogecoin have historically posted explosive gains when market sentiment is positive but collapsed when the outlook sours.
Dogecoin Price data by YCharts
It isn’t easy to pinpoint precisely why this occurs. But it likely has something to do with the asset’s investment community and its goals. When it was launched in 2013, Dogecoin was intended to satirize the cryptocurrency industry, not solve any particular problem. This somewhat unserious perspective has become part of its brand, potentially influencing the type of investors willing to buy the asset.
Lagging institutional acceptance
Unlike Dogecoin, other early cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (launched in 2009) and Ethereum (launched in 2015) have attracted growing mainstream acceptance. Both assets have been approved for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has opened the door for institutional investors like pension funds, university endowments, and even national governments to add them to their portfolios.
These deep-pocketed organizations can have a stabilizing effect on crypto prices because they tend to hold for the long haul instead of panic-selling to take profits or pay for real-life emergencies.
On the other hand, Dogecoin attracts a more retail-oriented crowd that is easily swayed by statements from influencers like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has frequently promoted Dogecoin to his 220 million followers on X (formerly Twitter). While positive posts can boost an asset’s price in the short term, they aren’t enough to create sustainable value.
Furthermore, Dogecoin’s history of price booms and busts has likely become a negative feedback loop, scaring away long-term investors and attracting even more short-term speculators looking for a quick buck.
What about the fundamentals?
While cryptocurrencies can’t be valued based on traditional stock market metrics like revenue or earnings growth, that doesn’t mean they don’t have fundamentals. Unfortunately for Dogecoin investors, this volatile meme coin wasn’t designed to be a good store of value.
The number of Dogecoin in circulation is programmed to increase by 5 billion units annually. With roughly 148.5 billion units in circulation, that’s an inflation rate of 3.3%, which is higher than the U.S. dollar right now. While that number looks small (and will actually shrink over time), the number of coins will pile up over the long term, making Dogecoin less attractive than alternative cryptocurrencies with deflationary designs.
Image source: Getty Images.
Dogecoin also isn’t optimized for smart contracts, which are applications built on top of a blockchain network. And with a transaction speed of around one minute, it may beat Bitcoin but it’s still significantly slower than newer alternatives like Solana, which can process transactions in seconds.
What could the next year have in store?
While Dogecoin can outperform other cryptocurrencies during a bull market, its speculative community, inflationary design, and lack of real-world utility will cause it to underperform when hype fades. With industry excitement starting to die down after Trump’s election, investors should expect Dogecoin to continue declining over the coming months.
Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Solana, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
