Shares of ConocoPhillips (COP 2.85%) dipped on Tuesday after TheFly.com reported multiple bank analysts forecasting lower price targets for the oil major in light of an ongoing trade war and recent declines in oil prices. On Wednesday, however, Conoco stock perked back up, rising a modest 2.3%, and indeed, recovering all of yesterday’s losses.
And why?
Because oil prices are going back up.
More oil, less gas
As OilPrice.com reports, oil inventories rose by 500,000 barrels last week, which bodes ill for oil prices (the laws of supply and demand being what they are). However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that while crude supplies are up, inventories of gasoline and middle distillates (such as diesel and kerosene) are both down — about 2 million barrels each.
Investors are reacting to the mixed news by bidding oil prices higher on Wednesday. At last report, WTI crude oil prices had risen 2% to roughly $62.60 a barrel, and Brent Crude was up nearly as much, 1.9%, at just under $66 a barrel.
Is ConocoPhillips stock a buy?
Logically, this should be good news for ConocoPhillips. It just makes sense that when oil prices rise, so too do prices of oil stocks. That said, I don’t think investors should get too excited about this one-day shift in oil prices… or in Conoco’s stock price, either.
Granted, at a trailing P/E ratio of only 11.8, Conoco stock doesn’t look obviously expensive (at all!). However, tariff kerfuffles, the ongoing trade war, and analyst forecasts for only 4% annualized long-term earnings growth at Conoco tell me this stock may not be much of a bargain, even at this apparently low price.
True, Conoco pays a decent dividend of 3.6%. But its free cash flow is subpar (less than $8 billion versus $9.2 billion in reported net income, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data).
All things considered, I suspect there are better stocks for energy investors to invest in than ConocoPhillips — faster-growing and better dividend-paying ExxonMobil (XOM 2.30%), for example.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
