What the stock market gives, the stock market can take away. A mere one day after Progressive (PGR -3.53%) delivered first-quarter results that satisfied investors, a recommendation downgrade by an analyst on Thursday made the stock something of a pariah.
It closed that session almost 4% lower, on a day when the benchmark S&P 500 index managed to crawl 0.1% higher.
Going down with a downgrade
I should mention that several analysts weighed in with bullish takes on Progressive’s earnings on Thursday, with no less than three raising their price targets on the insurance company’s stock.
As we all know, however, it sometimes takes only one guest to spoil the party. Well before market open today, Meyer Shields — a pundit at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, part of Stifel Financial — made the downgrade. For him, the company now rates a market perform (hold, in other words) where previously it was an outperform (buy). Shields maintained his price target of $288 per share.
His somewhat contrarian move was based on trends that he said he has noted with the business, according to reports. He wrote in his latest research note that the growth of its in-force auto policies will slow, due in no small part to moderating rate increases from competitors. Shields also expressed concern that Progressive’s earned rates will come under pressure from increased claims.
The right side of the road
In this instance, I’d be more likely to side with the analysts who bumped up their price targets rather than the downgrading party. Progressive’s management has shown flair in finding fresh ways to grow, so I think pressure in its core activities will be mitigated by other sources of revenue and profitability. This stock feels like a buy to me these days.
Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Progressive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
