Honduras’ presidential election in November could offer Taiwan its first new diplomatic partner in nearly two decades. On the campaign trail so far, multiple candidates have endorsed re-establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Such a move would increase Taipei’s remaining diplomatic allies from 12 to 13, a diplomatic win for the island during a period of political turbulence and escalating Chinese aggression.
When Honduras Left Taiwan for China
In 2023, under President Xiomara Castro, Honduras became the latest Latin American country to ditch ties with Taiwan in order to establish relations with China. Its diplomatic path to Beijing was notable.
When neighboring Panama, El Salvador, and Nicaragua all switched between 2017 and 2021, Honduras stayed firmly with Taiwan. During his 2014-2022 presidency, Juan Orlando Hernandez pledged to support Taiwan’s sovereignty, welcomed Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen on a 2017 visit to Honduras, and traveled to Taipei on multiple occasions. In fact, some of Hernandez’s own children lived in Taiwan to pursue educational and professional opportunities, and according to Tsai, Hernandez was the first world leader to congratulate her on her 2016 election victory.
Hernandez’s successor, however, has not shown the same support for Taiwan. While running for president in 2021, Xiomara Castro pledged to open diplomatic relations with China if elected, citing Chinese commercial opportunities and COVID-19 vaccine access as reasons. Following her election, Castro reversed course, stating that Honduras would remain a diplomatic partner of Taiwan in December 2021. She then welcomed Taiwan’s then-Vice President Lai Ching-te at her January inauguration and met with him. Lai delivered a donation of COVID-19 protective equipment in large boxes labeled, “TAIWAN HELPS.”
Fourteen months into her presidency in March 2023, however, Castro publicly instructed her foreign minister, Eduardo Enrique Reina, to establish relations with Beijing. The key issue was finances, with Reina stating that the Castro administration approached China partially because Honduras was “up to its neck” in debt, including $600 million owed to Taiwan. Reuters has reported that Reina sent a letter to Taiwan’s then-Foreign Minister Joseph Wu requesting nearly $2.5 billion in aid, including a $2 billion loan for debt relief in addition to funds to build a hospital and a dam. Reina has publicly denied the $2.5 billion figure, but acknowledged that the administration did repeatedly ask Taiwan to buy Honduran public debt.
Wu commented at the time, “The foreign ministry and embassy grasped the relevant information and handled it carefully. However, the Castro government also asked us for billions of dollars in huge economic assistance and compared prices for assistance programs provided by Taiwan and China.”
Honduras’ demands were beyond what Taiwan would offer, and Tsai announced in a video statement that Taiwan refused to participate in a “meaningless contest of dollar diplomacy with China.” Meanwhile, Reina traveled to Beijing, signed a bilateral agreement with the Chinese foreign minister. Honduras thus formally ended eight decades of diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, leaving Taiwan with only 13 remaining diplomatic allies. That number has since dropped to 12, after Pacific island nation Nauru switched in January 2024.
A Reconsidered Relationship
Since establishing bilateral relations in 2023, China has not delivered on its economic promises to Honduras. But Chinese firms have moved rapidly into the newly opened space in Honduras. According to reporting by Honduran newspaper El Haraldo, 14 Chinese retailers selling low-cost goods have sprung up in central Honduras with prices way lower than competitors, forcing local businesses’ revenues to fall as much as 70 percent. A city official in Tegucigalpa, Honduras’s capital, has reported that many more such stores exist across the country.
The shrimp industry has also been devastated by the change. In 2022, Taiwan was the largest market for Honduran shrimp, purchasing almost 40 percent of exports, but since the Castro administration switched its diplomatic recognition, data from the Honduran National Association of Aquaculturalists (ANDAH) shows that shrimp exports have fallen 67 percent, resulting in the loss of 14,000 jobs.
Even Reina – who established ties with China and severed ties with Taiwan during his March 2023 trip to Beijing – admitted that Honduras has struggled to enter the Chinese market. In March this year, he announced that the Castro administration is now “working with Taiwan to explore other possibilities” and “working to support the shrimp sector.”
In this context, candidates in the upcoming presidential election have expressed intentions to undo Honduras’s new diplomatic relationship with China. At a debate in April, Salvador Nasralla, former vice president and current nominee of the centrist Liberal Party, pledged to restore relations with Taiwan if elected president and condemned China for “exploiting” Honduras and “colonizing” the country with an unfair trade agreement.
The National Party’s nominee in the election, Nasry Afura, has stated that Honduras was “100 times better off” when it was allied with Taiwan, pointing to commerce and developmental assistance that Taipei provided the country. While meeting with investors, congressional staffers, and think tanks in Washington in July, Asfura pledged to move Honduras away from China and toward Taiwan as president.
The only major candidate that has not endorsed reconciling with Taiwan is Castro’s current Defense Minister Rixi Moncada, who is running to extend the leftist Libre party’s hold on the executive branch. Given corruption scandals and polling data showing that only 10 percent of Hondurans believe their economy is good, the outlook is not great for incumbents, and thus is promising for Taiwan. Still, Honduran electoral rules require just a simple majority, and the opposition is split behind Nasralla and Afura, so there is definitely a path to victory for Libre – and much uncertainty for everyone following the race.
Washington’s Role
There is another critical factor at play: the United States government. Since the first Trump administration’s foreign policy establishment began seeking to curb China’s influence in Latin America, State Department officials and consecutive presidential administrations have attempted to preserve Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic relations, including in Honduras. To the Chinese Communist Party’s displeasure, in March 2020 President Donald Trump signed into law the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act, which formally endorses U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan’s diplomatic standing and encourages the U.S. government to consider “altering” relations with countries whose actions “undermine the security or prosperity of Taiwan.” During her February 2022 confirmation hearing, former U.S. Ambassador to Honduras Laura Farnsworth Dogu pledged to promote Taiwan as a “valuable partner” and “make clear the importance of the Honduras-Taiwan relationship.”
Accordingly, the U.S. government took action when it suspected, and then knew, that Honduras would switch recognition. While Reina was negotiating the recognition switch in Beijing, the American Institute of Taiwan (the United States’ de facto embassy in Taipei) issued a statement that declared, “It is important to note the PRC often makes promises in exchange for diplomatic recognition that ultimately remain unfulfilled.” The same week, the Biden administration dispatched special envoy Chris Dodd to Tegucigalpa to meet with Castro, who discussed her diplomatic decision with U.S. officials. Back in Washington, U.S. senators from both parties criticized the decision and warned about negative ramifications for the Honduran people and Honduras-U.S. relations.
Bilateral relations have further strained since then. Castro has met with Xi Jinping in Beijing, signed Honduras up to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, backed Nicolas Maduro’s dictatorship in Venezuela, ended a bilateral extradition treaty, and threatened to oust the U.S. military from a major airbase in Honduran territory. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has declared countering Chinese influence in Latin America a major foreign policy priority of the Trump administration and applauded Guatemala for maintaining relations with Taiwan.
In a country with remittances amounting to the equivalent of over 25 percent of GDP and its far-largest export market being the United States, Honduran opposition candidates have reasons to seek rapprochement with Washington, and re-establishing relations with Taiwan would surely be a step in that direction. Whatever the outcome of November’s presidential election, Honduras’ approach to cross-strait tensions carries great implications not just for relations between Taipei and Beijing, but also for those between Tegucigalpa and Washington.
Conclusion
The Taiwan issue in this year’s Honduran election shows that the diplomatic tussle between Beijing and Taipei has far-reaching consequences for small countries weighing relations with both, involving developmental economics, domestic politics, and U.S. relations. Moreover, China’s commercial impact on Honduras shows that Beijing can fail to deliver on economic promises to countries switching relations. Such uncompleted promises can push countries back toward Taiwan, which is proactively attempting to maintain its few remaining diplomatic allies.
Given campaign statements, if either the National or Liberal Party wins this year’s election, it seems that Honduras may re-establish relations with Taiwan. Such an event would be historic, as no country has re-established ties with Taipei since the Caribbean island-nation St. Lucia did in 2007. Many eyes will be on Tegucigalpa in November.
