TRENTON, N.J. — In the waning days of New Jersey’s contested primary for governor, Democratic and Republican candidates are offering a glimpse of where the general election campaign could go. They’re grappling over the package of Trump tax breaks and program cuts recently passed by the House but characterizing it in dramatically different ways.
Each side is using the measure as a cudgel against the other.
Depending on which party’s candidates are speaking, Trump is either a tax-cutting hero who is cleaning up the nation’s broken immigration system and right-sizing the federal government, or a rogue president recklessly rounding up U.S. citizens, driving up federal debt and slashing benefits for older and sicker Americans without regard for the law or who gets hurt.
That stark contrast in the two respective primaries suggests New Jersey voters will have clear decisions to make in the November general election — and that their choices, even in a state long dominated by Democrats, could signal how President Donald Trump’s aggressive second term is playing nationwide.
The wrangling in New Jersey comes before the June 10 primary in one of just two governors’ contests this year. The other is in Virginia. Both are being looked at for signs of how Democrats will answer Trump’s 2024 victory and his agenda and, for Republicans, as a fresh test of the president’s popularity.
The legislation Republicans call a “big, beautiful bill” is front and center in the argument.
In sparring over social media, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill opposed the bill, while Republican Jack Ciattarelli talked up the benefits of its tax cuts. The two are widely seen as leading contenders for their parties’ nominations.
Sherrill said the bill would drive up costs and attempted to link Ciattarelli, a former state legislator, to health care and food assistance cuts. “You are a yes-man for the MAGA agenda,” she wrote.
Ciattarelli jabbed Sherrill over opposing what would amount to tax cuts for many residents.
The tax cuts in the bill working its way through Congress are needed in New Jersey, he wrote, “thanks to Democrats making NJ the highest taxed state in America.”
The sniping could persist to the general election, experts say. Democrats are eager to blame the president and his party for unpopular cuts to social safety net programs and the GOP is looking to pin economic difficulties on Democrats, who’ve been in charge of state government for eight years.
Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited after winning twice. In a climate where voters can be restless for change, some say it’s a matter of what they will decide to be against.
“The real question will be do they hate Phil Murphy more or Donald Trump more?” said Julie Roginsky, a longtime Democratic campaign strategist, “Are they looking to turn the page on Phil Murphy or Donald Trump?”
Along with Sherrill, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Mayors Ras Baraka of Newark and Steven Fulop of Jersey City, former Senate President Steve Sweeney and teacher’s union executive Sean Spiller are locked in what appears to be a competitive contest for the Democratic nomination. Sherill has the backing of several influential county parties.
But the contest is unfolding in a new era, after the downfall of the county party line, a unique-to-New Jersey practice in which local parties were able to give their preferred candidates favorable ballot placement. And with each of the Democratic candidates marshaling support from different parts of the party base, it can be hard to tell who’s in the lead.
“I’m looking at the polls with a little more skepticism simply because how the landscape has changed,” said Montclair State University political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison.
A common thread among Democrats has been scalding criticism of the president and Republicans in Washington. Baraka made national headlines when he was arrested on a federal trespassing charge that was later dropped when he went to inspect an immigration detention center in Newark. Sherrill, Gottheimer and Spiller went to the site of the arrest later in a show of support and to demonstrate their opposition to the president’s immigration crackdown.
On the GOP side, the race changed significantly after Trump endorsed Ciattarelli, giving his seal of approval to the small business owner and former state lawmaker who once called the president a “charlatan.”
Ciattarelli has more recently embraced the president, whose endorsement is widely seen as a knockout blow in the GOP primary. Other Republicans in the contest have not, for the most part, disavowed the president, whose influence is hard to miss in the candidates’ rhetoric.
Former 101.5 talk radio host Bill Spadea has talked about replicating the Department of Government Efficiency in New Jersey. Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac casts himself as a long-time, true Trump loyalist.
State Sen. Jon Bramnick is alone in criticizing the president, particularly his pardons of those convicted in the Jan. 6 , 2021, Capitol insurrection, but even he has supported Trump’s push to end so-called sanctuary policies. Justin Barbera, a contractor from Burlington County, will also be on the ballot for Republicans.
New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in presidential and Senate contests for decades, but Republicans do better in governors’ contests, with each of the last three GOP governors winning two terms.
Democrats have struggled to find a message since Trump’s victory last year, with the winner of the New Jersey primary poised to attract a national spotlight as the party seeks to build on special election victories, even among GOP voters. Republicans hope Democrats’ eight years of state government control will result in voters taking any frustrations they feel out against the party in power in Trenton rather than on Trump.
New Jersey has seen its Democratic voter registration dip from about 1 million more than Republicans to roughly 800,000 more. Unaffiliated voters — those without a party, sometimes called independents— rival the Democrats’ advantage.
Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, suggested Democrats can’t be complacent.
“One of the things we have to remember is there’s something about the office of governor,” he said. “Voters are looking for something beyond ideology when it comes to our governors. They want executive administration skills — and sometimes they are willing to vote for Republicans.”
