Why the EU will struggle to negotiate an alternative trade deal with Ukraine

Good morning. A scoop to start: France and the UK are in early talks to reach an agreement on migrant returns across the Channel, officials have said.

Today, our finance and trade correspondents report on the uncertain future for Ukrainian food exports into the EU, while our Dublin correspondent has news of a Donald Trump-related threat to Irish students hoping to work a summer in the US.

How has Trump changed the world order? Join senior trade writer Alan Beattie, US markets editor Kate Duguid and chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman for a live Q&A at 4pm CET today.

Bridging the gap

The European Commission won’t extend trade measures giving Ukraine free access to the EU market, trying instead to negotiate broader trade liberalisation by a tight June 5 deadline, write Paola Tamma and Andy Bounds.

Context: So-called Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) abolishing tariffs on Ukrainian goods have been in place since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to enable Ukraine to export its agricultural goods overland and avoid the contested Black Sea.

But EU countries bordering Ukraine, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, have been lamenting that Ukrainian imports undercut domestic prices and spurred unrest among farmers.

The commission has introduced “emergency breaks” limiting imports of foodstuffs like eggs, poultry, sugar, oats, maize, groats and honey that can be triggered once import levels surpass a certain threshold.

The measures expire in early June, and will not be renewed this time. “The decision on the European Council is already made, ATMs are expiring,” Adam Szłapka, EU affairs minister for Poland, said last week.

The question is what comes in their place. The commission promised to negotiate broader bilateral trade liberalisation under the EU-Ukraine association agreement last year, but the process has not yet begun.

Two EU diplomats said the commission has delayed the proposal to avoid stirring up Polish farmers before Poland’s presidential election on May 18.

“The commission is committed to consultations with Ukraine . . . and our goal is to address reciprocal tariff liberalisation. We are finalising the work in this proposal and we will present it, as soon as we can, to Ukraine,” commission spokesperson Olof Gill said yesterday.

“The goal of this process is to ensure economic stability and predictability for businesses and farmers both in Ukraine and the EU,” Gill added.

But negotiations on this proposal would need to reach an agreement by June 5 to provide a “seamless transition”, as promised by the commission.

Many fear that is unlikely, and would leave Ukraine with pre-invasion trade conditions under which its exports would face high tariffs — something that the country can ill-afford, as support from the US in its war against Russia wavers.

An EU official said they were working on a “legal bridge” should there be no agreement before the deadline.

“Trade liberalisation should continue because the war is still there,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy premier, said last week.

Negotiations should lead to “transparent and sustainable trade liberalisation that addresses the concerns of member states but does not reverse progress,” she added.

Chart du jour: End of an era

Almost 84,000 active US service members are spread across at least 38 European bases — some of them dating back to the end of the second world war — which are all at risk of a withdrawal by Washington.

Travel warning

For many Irish students, a working summer holiday in the US has long been a rite of passage. But the Union of Students in Ireland (USI) is now urging participants to be careful of “the potential risks involved in activism” while there, writes Jude Webber.

Context: US President Donald Trump has clamped down on what he terms “antisemitism” since returning to office. A US immigration judge last week ruled that Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil, a Syrian-born green card holder, could be deported for taking part in pro-Palestinian protests. Opponents say Trump is stifling free speech.

The USI urged holders of so-called J1 visas in the US to be “cautious and informed”, and slammed “any attempt to restrict the rights of Irish students on J1 visas to engage in activism, including support for the Middle East”.

Ireland, together with Spain and Norway, last year officially recognised the state of Palestine, and sympathy for Palestinians is high in Ireland, which had its own history of colonisation by Britain.

The J1 programme, typically billed as offering “ridiculous fun” by the USI, allows Irish and US students to study and work in each others’ countries.

But as the EU issues its officials with burner phones to avoid the risk of espionage while on official trips to the US, some student leaders are also warning J1 participants to delete their social media history before travelling to avoid problems with immigration officials.

Some participants are boycotting the programme altogether in favour of EU locations.

What to watch today

1. European Commission to present report on dangerous products.

2. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw.

Now read these

• Guns vs butter: Belgium is preparing to borrow more and implement welfare cuts to reach Nato’s current defence spending goal.

• Turning tables: European carmakers are increasingly doing deals with Chinese rivals to prevent them from falling behind in core areas.

• Staying hopeful: The US is engaging in efforts to negotiate a landmark global tax deal despite Trump’s criticism of the agreement, according to the OECD.