Despite dramatic shifts in the frontlines, neither side is anywhere near the ‘total military victory’ wanted by Sudan’s warring generals.(Reuters/Goran Tomasevic)
The symbolic centre of the Sudanese state – what’s left of it, anyway – is the Republican Palace, a compound on the banks of the Blue Nile in Khartoum.
It is currently under siege. Units fighting for the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), commanded by Abdel Fattah Al- Burhan, are just a few blocks away, after advancing rapidly through parts of the
capital city. In the Khartoum context of the civil war, the palace’s current occupants – the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group – are on the back foot.
All political transitions in Sudan – including the Mahdist Uprising, the first post-independence flag-raising, and multiple revolutions – run through the palace. “The palace is more than just a building,” said Omer Mohamed Gorashi, a photographer and artist, in an interview with architecture magazine KoozArch. “It stands as both a testament to Sudanese resilience and an obstacle to fully overcoming colonial legacies.”
Most recently, it was the site of the massive demonstrations that forced longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir from power in 2019. As they marched, the protestors chanted: “Ila al-qasr hatta al- nasr!” To the palace until victory.
That revolution gave two generals increased authority: al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, who leads the RSF. Just two years later, the pair would join forces to launch a coup that removed the civilians from the transitional government.
Their unity was short-lived. Another two years later, the two generals had a falling out. War followed swiftly. Tens of thousands of people have been killed, and at least 12-million displaced. Half the population is facing hunger. The war has been characterised by massacres and war crimes on both sides; the RSF has been accused of committing ethnic cleansing and genocide in Darfur.
When the war broke out in April 2023, one of Hemedti’s first moves was to seize the Republican Palace. That control is now under serious threat. If al-Burhan’s forces do succeed in taking the palace, and the rest of the capital, it will be the biggest shift in the power balance of the war to date.
Momentum is with the SAF. The army has made startling gains in recent weeks, starting with the capture of Wad Madani in Al Jazira State. It has recaptured its headquarters in Khartoum, as well as the Signal Corps base in Bahri.
Displaced civilians, desperate to return
to their homes, are trailing in the army’s wake. There is no guarantee that those homes will still be intact: in the early days of the war, RSF troops occupied homes, especially in high-rise buildings, to use as sniper positions. Many were destroyed. Reports indicate that, as they retreat, the militia fighters are making off with domestic items like Starlink satellites and whatever else they can carry.
For other civilians, the changing power dynamics bring new dangers. After retaking Wad Medani, SAF fighters and allied militia executed at least 45 people and torched the villages of anyone suspected of having collaborated with the RSF. The evidence of said collaboration was often little more than ethnicity.
The RSF, meanwhile, appears to be unleashing wanton retaliatory violence as they retreat from Khartoum. On Tuesday, the Emergency Lawyers Network said that RSF fighters killed more than 200 people in Al-Kadaris and Al-Khalwat, in the White Nile state which lies just south of the capital.
Should the Republican Palace siege end in SAF’s favour – the army says it will, and soon – General al-Burhan’s claim to be the legitimate governor of Sudan will be dramatically more credible. Most countries continue to recognise al- Burhan as Sudan’s official leader anyway,
even though he has – until recently – been stuck in Port Sudan, the wartime capital that is some 800km away from the office of the presidency.
This will not mean, however, that the end of the war is in sight. The RSF is still entrenched in Darfur and parts of North Kordofan, and Hemedti is attempting to build a coalition of civil society organisations with which he can create a parallel government.
Much may depend on the actions of foreign powers. One theory for the SAF’s sudden military advances is that the supply of weapons to the RSF from networks in the United Arab Emirates slowed down following United States sanctions that were imposed early this year
