On June 17, the second Central Asia-China Summit summit will be held in Astana, Kazakhstan, with the presidents of all five Central Asian states and Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected to attend. The top-level meeting comes in the wake of Central Asia’s first summit with the two presidents of the European Union on April 4 and amid ongoing uncertainty (not entirely absent optimism) regarding U.S. regional policy in the second Donald Trump term.
Details are thin as of this writing. A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry responded to a question on June 11 seeking more information on China’s aims for the summit by saying, “Regarding the specific visit you mentioned, we will release information in due course.”
Kazakhstan’s Presidential Press Office confirmed Xi’s upcoming visit, noting in a brief statement that the Chinese president will be in Astana June 16-17 for high-level talks with his Kazakh counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, “focused on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership.”
“Astana will also host the 2nd #CentralAsia – #China Summit on June 17,” the statement, posted on X, said.
The summit comes two years after the inaugural Central Asia-China Summit, which took place in May 2023 in Xi’an. Although China launched its version of the C5+1 format in 2020, the gatherings took place virtually until 2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
China hyped the 2023 summit in advance, signaling in a press conference 10 days before the gathering that Xi would deliver an “important speech,” and that the gathered leaders would “sign an important political document.” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson at the time said the summit would “help draw a new blueprint for China-Central Asia relations and open up a new era for cooperation between the two sides.”
China rolled out the red carpet, literally, for Central Asia’s presidents in Xi’an on May 18-19, 2023. Xi’s “important speech” laid out the core principles of his “community with a shared future for mankind” with regard to the relationship with Central Asia. These included deepening “strategic mutual trust” and giving support “on issues related to core interests such as sovereignty, independence, national dignity, and long-term development,” sticking to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), upholding “universal security” via joint implementation of the Global Security Initiative (including a mention of opposing “external forces” trying to instigate “color revolutions” and together opposing the “three evil forces”) and finally, “everlasting friendship.”
As I wrote at the time, the resulting 15-point China-Central Asia Xi’an declaration constructed “a vision of strong and growing ties between China and the states of Central Asia.”
Later in 2023, then-U.S. President Joe Biden hosted the first Central Asia-U.S. Leaders’ Summit on the sidelines of the U.S. General Assembly in New York. The meeting was an outgrowth of the United States’ C5+1 format, which has seen annual foreign minister-level meetings since 2015, including during the first Trump administration.
The upcoming Central Asia-China summit in Astana, the first to take place in Central Asia itself, is another opportunity to take the pulse of relations at the top level.
While we lack an agenda as of writing, we can look to the the sixth China-Central Asia foreign ministers meeting, which took place in Almaty in late April, for clues. That meeting, as the Astana Times reported, “focused on strengthening political dialogue, expanding trade and economic ties, developing transport interconnectivity, addressing regional challenges and threats, and promoting sustainable development and environmental security.”
Per a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned of rising “unilateralism and trade protectionism” alongside a worrying “anti-globalization” trend. Wang directly mentioned the United States, which earlier that month had unveiled its not-so reciprocal “reciprocal tariff” list targeting dozens of countries with extraordinarily high tariff rates (only to walk it back to a universal 10 percent tariff while the harsher rates are under review). Kazakhstan was on the list with a 27 percent tariff.
The foreign ministers meeting touched on all the usual points with the typical degree of ambiguity. Wang “put forward five proposals from the Chinese side for deepening China-Central Asia cooperation”: “First, be firm in upholding good faith and fostering harmony. Second, stick to mutually beneficial cooperation. Third, continue to advance institutional development. Fourth, adhere to fairness and justice. Fifth, be firm in friendship for generations.”
What those proposals mean in concrete terms is not clear – and perhaps that’s by design. Who can argue against “fairness and justice” or “friendship”? We can expect these points to form the core agenda for the upcoming summit, too, though hopefully with more detail as to what they mean for Central Asia.
