Zelenskyy meets Merz to shore up support amid Trump uncertainty

Good morning. Today, I preview Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Germany to win some assurance, assistance and ammunition, and our Paris bureau chief reports on a vote to allow assisted dying in France.

We are taking a break over the Ascension day long weekend. See you next week.

Balancing act

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Berlin today seeking geopolitical reassurances and the cold, hard metal of military support, ahead of potentially the most consequential month in his country’s history.

Context: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz won power in February, weeks after US President Donald Trump was sworn in pledging to end the conflict immediately.

Zelenskyy will meet Merz at a febrile time in European politics. Merz is not alone among European leaders in being deeply distracted by the upcoming summit of Nato leaders in June, where Trump wants promises to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, under threat of the US withdrawing military support to those who defy that demand, and wants little discussion on ongoing western support to Ukraine.

As such, Merz’s discussions with Zelenskyy today are expected to revolve around ways that Berlin and other EU allies can increase support to Ukraine both now and in a potential ceasefire scenario — with or without US backing.

The talks take place amid deep uncertainty over Trump’s willingness to ensure Russia is punished for its invasion, and whether or not his desire to enforce a peace deal could come at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Earlier this week, Merz said there were no longer any restrictions on the use of long-range German weapons used by Ukraine to strike Russian targets, enraging Moscow which said the move was “escalatory” and would undermine a lacklustre peace process initiated by Trump but only blithely backed by Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Merz’s meeting with Zelenskyy also comes ahead of talks with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen tomorrow in Aachen, and a potential trip to the US next week, according to officials.

All such engagements underscore Merz’s desire to appear more proactive regarding support to Ukraine than his predecessor Olaf Scholz, who was reluctant to take forward-learning positions on military support to Kyiv or break with US convention on political support to Zelenskyy.

“Germany’s US policy under Merz is likely to be equally dual-headed and schizophrenic,” writes Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group. “Incessantly engage Trump to keep him as invested in Europe and Ukraine as possible . . . while simultaneously preparing for a world with less America.”

Chart du jour: Russian roulette

Vladimir Putin’s gamble on the Russian economy is unravelling, according to an FT data investigation, as a sharp rise in Russians’ living standards that has helped underpin support for the war against Ukraine begins to slow.

Right to die

French lawmakers have passed a draft law which could give people with incurable diseases the right to get assistance to end their lives — if finalised by the Senate, writes Leila Abboud.

Context: France’s so-called “end of life” bill would allow mortally ill people to self administer lethal medicine under certain conditions. The law is stricter than similar ones in Belgium or Switzerland, for instance, as people with Alzheimer’s or mental illnesses would not qualify.

More than three-quarters of French people back assisted dying, according to polls. In the National Assembly, MPs were more divided, with some expressing concerns over patient protection, while others had moral or religious concerns.

“I do not want a society that helps people to die, but one that helps to live and offers treatment,” said Philippe Juvin, a practising doctor and MP for the conservative Les Républicains party.

The draft law’s rapporteur, Olivier Falorni, said the law was “noble since it carries in its heart republican values of liberty, equality and fraternity”.

The final vote passed with 305 MPs in favour and 199 against it. A separate, complementary law to boost palliative care passed with unanimous support.

Next up is a debate in the Senate, where the bill will face more intense scrutiny, since the upper house is controlled by the right. If the Senate votes it down, the bill would come back to the assembly for further debate.

President Emmanuel Macron has made passing the measure a priority of his second term, after it was repeatedly delayed. But his government is not completely behind him, including Catholic Prime Minister François Bayrou, who yesterday said he was “not yet convinced”.

What to watch today

1. EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič visits the United Arab Emirates for trade talks.

2. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin.

3. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visits European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels.

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