Macron and Starmer aim for scaled-back Ukraine peacekeeping plan

Good morning. US President Donald Trump yesterday said he would impose tariffs of 25 per cent on imports of foreign-made cars — and that this time, they would be “permanent”.

Today, I preview this morning’s meeting of western allies drawing up support plans for post-conflict Ukraine, and Laura reveals some new (and encouraging) research into European air quality.

‘Pacifist’ troops

The “coalition of the willing” rolls back into Paris this morning, as a European effort to provide post-ceasefire security to Ukraine scales back its earlier ambitions.

Context: US President Donald Trump’s decisions last month to open bilateral talks with Moscow and push Russia and Ukraine into a rapid ceasefire sparked crisis talks among senior European leaders. Discussions, led by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, centred around plans to support Ukraine and increase the continent’s own defence capabilities.

Macron expects delegations from 31 countries today, more than three times the number that came to the first meeting. But initial enthusiasm to provide European peacekeepers to enforce a ceasefire has died down.

The shift has happened just as the US pushes for the implementation of the first part of a shaky ceasefire deal, a truce in the Black Sea. That has increased pressure on those meeting at the Élysée Palace today to draw up concrete options.

“So we are not on the front lines, we don’t go to fight, but we are there to guarantee a lasting peace. It’s a pacifist approach,” Macron said last night about the plans before hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for supper. “The only ones who would, at that moment, trigger a conflict, a bellicose situation, would be the Russians if they decided again to launch an aggression.”

Macron, who also announced a further €2bn in military support for Kyiv, told reporters the potential European forces would not “be engaged on the first day opposite Russian forces”, but instead would “be forces that dissuade the Russians from attacking again. And by holding important towns, strategic bases, mark the clear support from several European allies.”

Today’s discussions will focus on the format and size of potential international deployments, and other tasks including training Ukrainian troops.

Standing beside Macron, Zelenskyy last night made a point of stating that Ukraine needs real soldiers, not ceasefire monitors. His French host was quick to clarify that any potential French peacekeepers would “respond” if Russia were to attack again.

European leaders signalled that the focus was shifting from boots on the ground to a more supportive air and sea “reassurance force”, after a gathering of military chiefs hosted by the UK last week.

Referring to Ukraine’s already large and experienced land forces, Starmer said the coalition was “not talking about something that replaces that capability: we’re talking about something that reinforces that and then puts around it capabilities in relation to air, water and sea and land”.

Chart du jour: Popular

Populations are rallying behind leaders seeking to fend off US threats including tariffs, the withdrawal of military support and conquest.

Hold your breath

A new report finds that outdoor pollution kills millions of people worldwide, but Europe is doing relatively well compared with other regions — mainly thanks to its oft-maligned climate regulations, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: Air pollution kills roughly 5.7mn people per year, according to a new report by the World Bank to be published today. Almost the entire world’s population — 99 per cent — is exposed to pollution levels that exceed those recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Western Europe as well as the UK also exceed the WHO’s target of 5 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3) of fine particle matter, at an average of 9 μg/m3, the World Bank finds. But that is still low compared to the 24.9 μg/m3 in the Western Balkans, for instance, or other regions such as the Middle East at 41.3 μg/m3.

The main causes of air pollution with fine particles in Europe are residential heating, industry and transport emissions, the World Bank writes.

“Improving air quality is an urgent health and economic imperative,” said Axel van Trotsenburg, the World Bank’s senior managing director. “By focusing on the sectors that generate the biggest impact . . . we can ensure cleaner and healthier air within our lifetime.”

The report states that the EU has been at the forefront of efforts to improve air quality, citing for instance rules on industrial emissions and vehicle standards.

For once, the bloc’s green regulations don’t receive a bashing, but are praised for protecting citizens: “Air quality has improved in the European Union (EU) thanks to its regulatory framework,” the report finds, adding that the bloc “provides an example of long-standing transboundary co-operation to improve air quality.”

What to watch today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron hosts western leaders in Paris to discuss military support to Ukraine.

2. EU environment ministers meet.

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