History is chasing President Trump and, come tomorrow, one way or the other, it will find him in Alaska. Many observers warn that his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin could be as globally catastrophic as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s was with Nazi Chancellor Adolf Hitler at Munich in 1938.
Or it could be worse.
Team Trump has the benefit of history as a guide. The next 50 to 100 years of U.S.-Russia relations will likely be determined by how well or how badly Trump knows that history.
Chamberlain’s failure at appeasing Hitler is the obvious lesson. But the other lesson, considerably more nuanced, was his unforgiveable negligence in not giving Czechoslovakia or Poland a seat at the negotiating table.
Trump is now repeating this same mistake by excluding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The White House’s excuse is that Putin requested the meeting. By weakly omitting Zelensky, Trump is recklessly making his own mistake far greater than Chamberlain’s original sin at Munich.
Ukraine today, unlike Poland and Czechoslovakia in 1938, has established itself as a bulwark against future Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. If Putin wins, then not only will Ukraine be lost, but Poland, Moldova, Finland and the Baltic States — especially the strategic Suwalki Gap — will be, to put it in military terms, perilously at risk.Â
Team Trump would be wise to view Putin’s machinations as akin to a dystopian invasion of Alaska. Ditto the entire West. Putin’s Foreign Ministry made it clear Wednesday that he is not backing down from his maximalist demands, which would end Ukrainian independence. With this meeting, he is trying once again to win from Team Trump what he has not been able to win in three-and-a-half years of war.
Russian evil, as embodied by Putin’s ongoing genocide against Ukraine, war crimes and crimes against humanity, will have won out over the notion of core American values of freedom and liberty. In MacBeth-like terms, this dystopia would end up where American fair is foul and Russian foul is fair.
If Putin bests Trump in Alaska, it will also result a decisive economic victory by Putin over Trump. The Donbas is estimated to have more than 50 percent of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, with a potential economic value of $5.75 trillion. Those funds are needed for Ukraine to repay the U.S. and to rebuild after the war.
Recent Kremlin gains, including an ongoing Russian ground breakout in Donetsk earlier this week, are already putting more and more of those Ukrainian rare earth deposits on Putin’s side of the battle lines.
Western Europe is highly alarmed. Not only is Team Trump giving Ukraine the cold shoulder in Alaska, but they are also icing out London and Brussels from any meaningful participation in events that will directly affect their short- and long-term national security.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is not having it. He met with Zelensky on Wednesday, and the two leaders agreed Ukraine should have the right to join NATO and that Kyiv will not withdraw from the Donbas.
Team Trump cannot expect its European NATO allies to take more ownership of their defense — including upping military spending to 5 percent of GDP to confront a growing Russian threat — while at the same time arguing that Washington has the right to unilaterally negotiate Ukraine and Eastern Europe’s future with Putin.
Rather than keeping Ukraine on the same page, Trump is again resorting to form and criticizing Zelensky in order to buy favor with Putin ahead of the negotiations — and just as Putin planned. On Tuesday, by disinviting Zelensky, the White House gave Putin an easy win.Â
Earlier on Monday, Trump slammed Zelensky for insisting that Ukraine would not swap any territory with Russia to end the war. He also heavily criticized Zelensky for claiming he could not do so even if he wanted, given that Ukraine’s constitution requires Ukraine’s parliament to vote on it.
Vice President JD Vance had gone even further. He asserted on Fox News Sunday morning that the U.S. is done directly funding the war in Ukraine. As if an exclamation mark, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued an order that allows the return of U.S. weapons and ammunition stationed in Europe that had been intended for Ukraine’s use.
In stark contrast, Putin’s team is on the same page with their their BRICS trading partners and their “Axis of Evil” allies, China, Iran and North Korea.
Team Trump is dividing and conquering itself, while Team Putin is ideologically invading the 49th state. The result is great harm to our Indo-Pacific and NATO allies.
Putin has already banked multiple symbolic wins. For example, in Russia, for some time now, there has been a growing movement to argue that the U.S. illegally gained control of Alaska. One favorite revisionist narrative is that its sale was only a lease, and that the U.S. government fraudulently forged the treaty to make it a permanent land transfer.
By allowing Putin to plant his flag on Alaskan soil is to play to the Russian narrative. The Kremlin will use the trip for maximum propaganda purposes. Never mind that Putin is a wanted war criminal currently under indictment by the International Criminal Court.
Russian dystopia is not a good destination. Not for our country nor for our people. Team Trump frequently touts that they always put America first. If so, come Friday, that means putting Putin last.
Trump still has home field advantage, and it’s not over until it’s over. He must make clear that Washington will not allow Ukraine to be defeated by Putin, nor will we abandon our NATO allies in the face of current and future Russian aggression.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.
