Why US-Russia Black Sea talks are making Europe nervous

Good morning. Donald Trump’s yearning for Greenland is back in the news: Mike Waltz, the US national security adviser, and energy secretary Chris Wright will travel to the Danish Arctic island later this week and tour Pituffik Space Base, in what officials are billing as “a private visit”.

Yesterday in Saudi Arabia, US and Ukrainian negotiators resumed talks over a potential peace deal. Below, I explain why subsequent US-Russia talks today over the Black Sea are making European capitals nervous, and Laura lays out why the mass protests sweeping Turkey are problematic for Brussels.

Tomorrow, I’ll interview European Commission technology chief Henna Virkkunen on stage at the Financial Times’ event on Enabling Europe’s AI Ambitions in Brussels, alongside top FT colleagues and senior officials and experts. Register here to attend for free, or watch online.

Murky waters

Europe’s Black Sea states are watching on nervously as US-Russia peace negotiations over Ukraine continue today in Saudi Arabia, fearful of a possible deal that would restore some of Moscow’s clout over the contested waters.

Context: US President Donald Trump has demanded a rapid end to the war in Ukraine and opened bilateral negotiations with both Moscow and Kyiv in a bid to find a framework for a peace deal. European countries are not directly involved in the discussions.

Negotiators from Moscow and Washington will discuss Black Sea safety and a potential resumption of export lanes in Riyadh today, with the intention of tying a naval deal to a wider peace agreement.

Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said yesterday the talks would focus on “a Black Sea maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain, fuel and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea”.

EU littoral states Romania and Bulgaria are wary of any significant changes to the status quo in the Black Sea as part of any broader potential agreement between Russia and the US, officials from the region told the Financial Times, given that it would expand the Russian navy’s operational area.

Ukraine has successfully driven Russia’s navy out of the western part of the sea, in one of Kyiv’s most striking military achievements of the more than three-year-long war. Any agreement negotiated is thus expected to be beneficial to Moscow, the officials said, and could affect their countries’ security without giving them a say.

“This is our neighbourhood and we don’t trust the Russians if they are allowed more freedom to operate,” said one of the officials.

US and Russian officials have described today’s talks as “technical”, involving mid-level officials rather than senior politicians.

Still, Trump’s top Russia envoy Steve Witkoff yesterday seemed pretty bullish.

“I think that you’re going to see in Saudi Arabia on Monday some real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries,” he told Fox News.

Chart du jour: Takeover

Elon Musk’s ties to Donald Trump are becoming a hindrance to the global rollout of Starlink — as showcased by his recent unsuccessful efforts to salvage a $1.5bn deal with Italy.

Danger signs

The EU has warned Turkey not to stray from democratic standards after the arrest of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main challenger and hundreds of protesters, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: Last week, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was detained by police on corruption and terrorism charges, triggering mass protests. It is the first time such a senior member of the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP) has been detained under Erdoğan’s longtime rule.

Yesterday, a court ruled that İmamoğlu should remain in jail awaiting trial, a decision which he called a “black stain on democracy”. The government has also banned demonstrations in some cities and detained more than 600 protesters around the country since Friday.

These moves put the EU in an awkward position, at a time when Brussels is seeking closer ties with Ankara in the face of threats from Russia and an indifferent US.

Next month, the EU and Turkey are slated to hold a high-level economic dialogue for the first time since 2019, when relations soured over Ankara’s unauthorised drilling operations in the eastern Mediterranean.

But the arrest of İmamoğlu, who denies wrongdoing and previously announced he wants to challenge Erdoğan to the presidency, has forced Brussels to react.

EU foreign affairs spokesperson Anitta Hipper said yesterday that the arrests of İmamoğlu and the protesters “give rise to questions regarding Türkiye’s adherence to its long-established democratic tradition”.

Hipper said that as an EU accession candidate, “Türkiye must uphold democratic values”.

“The rights of elected officials, as well as the right for peaceful demonstrations need to be respected,” she warned.

What to watch today

1. EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas visits Israel and Palestine.

2. Meeting of EU agriculture and fishery ministers in Brussels

3. Informal meeting of EU health ministers in Warsaw.

4. Lithuania’s Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas meets his Estonian counterpart Kristen Michal in Tallinn.

Now read these

• Financial crisis redux: Top EU financial watchdogs have told the FT that watering down regulations risks another economic meltdown.

• Nuclear option: Trump’s pivot to Moscow and disregard for Nato threatens the consensus on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

• Keep it flowing: Kyiv has called on the EU to renew a trade deal lifting duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports, or risk “really damaging” consequences.