U.S. President Donald Trump hosts Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House on Friday, in a visit that Tokyo hopes will reaffirm the U.S.-Japan alliance amid Trump’s early foreign policy moves that have rattled allies and adversaries.
Trump and Ishiba are expected to discuss increasing joint military exercises and cooperation on defense equipment and technology, ramping up Japanese investments to the United States, and American energy exports to Japan, a senior Trump administration official said in a briefing to reporters Friday.
The official said they also will talk about improving cybersecurity capabilities, bolstering space cooperation and promoting joint business opportunities to develop critical technologies, including AI and semiconductors.
Ishiba’s visit comes amid anxiety in Tokyo as Trump has put pressure on some U.S. allies and partners, saying he wants to absorb Canada as a U.S. state, acquire Greenland from Denmark and take control of the Panama Canal.
“We would like to first establish a higher relationship of trust and cooperation between two countries, especially the two leaders,” a senior Japanese government official told reporters during a briefing Thursday.
The U.S. president has imposed fresh 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico — although the latter two have been at least temporarily delayed. He has warned of possible tariffs against other countries, especially those with whom the U.S. holds a trade deficit, such as Japan.
“We all know that President Trump pays a lot of attention to the deficit as an indication of the economic strength of the relationship. So, I’m sure discussions will happen about that,” the Trump administration official said.
Other strains on the U.S.-Japan relationship include former President Joe Biden’s blocking of a $15 billion acquisition bid by Japan’s largest steel producer, Nippon Steel, for Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel.
Biden blocked the deal during the final weeks of his term, citing national security concerns. Trump has said he also opposes the deal.
The White House has not responded to VOA’s query on Trump’s current position on Nippon Steel. The Japanese prime minister’s office did not respond to VOA’s query on whether the issue will be raised today.
Continuity on security front
Under then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Japan became a key player in what the Biden administration called a “lattice-like strategic architecture” to bolster deterrence against the two main U.S. adversaries in the Pacific: China and North Korea.
Biden’s approach connected Tokyo with other allies in trilateral formats and other groupings, including with South Korea, Australia and the Philippines, to deter regional threats in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula.
Japan is anxious to maintain ties forged in recent years, during which time Tokyo has increased defense spending and intensified joint military exercises with the U.S. and other regional allies.
Japan needs a “multilayered network of security” to defend itself, the senior Japanese official said.
The Trump administration will continue to support trilateral efforts and some of the working groups that have come out from under those over the last few years, the Trump official said. “There may be some adjustments to where the focus is on trilateral cooperation, but I think largely you will see continuity.”
Under his first term, Trump and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed on the “free and open Indo-Pacific” framework to promote peace and prosperity in the region. The two countries also agreed to elevate what’s known as the Quad grouping with India and Australia.
The fact that the Trump administration sees those formats as a critical part of its strategy in the Pacific is important, said Jeffrey Hornung, the Japan Lead for the RAND National Security Research Division.
A key indicator to watch is whether the leaders will come out with a joint statement on a free and open Indo-Pacific. While it may sound like a diplomatic cliché, it would deliver a strong message to Beijing to not be provocative toward Taiwan, Hornung told VOA.
In dealing with the threats from Pyongyang, the Trump official underscored the U.S. is “committed to the complete denuclearization of North Korea.”
Making deals with Japan
While maintaining the security alliance, analysts say Trump may use the visit as an opportunity to broker deals that would further his “America First” agenda, using what he sees as Tokyo’s interests as leverage.
“Part of President Trump’s negotiating stance for almost all issues is that we don’t really know where he wants to land in the end,” said Kenji Kushida, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“If the promise to allow Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel can be used as bargaining leverage, he may use this to get Japan to pay much more than they’re already committed, to help contribute to U.S. military bases and other defense costs,” he told VOA.
Ahead of Ishiba’s visit, Nippon Steel said its proposed acquisition is aligned with Trump’s goals of a stronger United States.
“From Japan’s perspective, they want to position themselves as the staunch ally of U.S. interests in Asia, and so fitting into that set of interests is Nippon Steel’s strategy here,” Kushida said.
Tokyo is aware of what Trump wants — investments in key industries such as AI and semiconductors, increasing Tokyo’s defense spending and American energy purchase.
“Those are all areas that Japan does have shared interests. They have technology. They have the money to invest in some of these areas, and so they’re able to use their leverage in a very strategic manner,” Hornung said. “At the same time, trying to promote with Trump the things that they’re interested in: making sure that U.S. forces remain in Japan, making sure that the U.S. remains committed to the Indo-Pacific.”
The best-case scenario for Ishiba is that Trump doesn’t ask beyond what Tokyo already expected, said Kushida.
“Perhaps an increase in the defense sharing burden, mainly buying U.S. military equipment, expansion of U.S. bases, perhaps, and then perhaps some other financial commitments, but nothing that would upset the sort of geopolitical status in East Asia to Japan’s disadvantage,” Kushida said. “Nothing very extreme, or to get mixed in with some of the issues In the Middle East in ways that Japan has been trying to keep out.”
The leaders are expected to hold a press conference later Friday.
