On March 12, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke with American bloggers Mario Nawfal, Larry C. Johnson and Andrew Napolitano in Moscow.
When asked whether the U.S. administration’s efforts to normalize relations with Moscow are just to use Russia “cynically against the Chinese,” Lavrov rejected such possibility.
He described Russia-China relations as long-term, stronger and more confidential, based in deep trust and mutual understanding, and he emphasized widespread public support in both countries.
That is misleading.
The claim overlooks the underlying complexities and skepticism in the Russia-China relationship.
Underlying tensions: Despite the appearance of a strong partnership, ongoing tensions underlie the relationship. This includes skepticism on both sides, especially about economic stability, military strength and the extent of mutual trust.
Economic imbalance: China has become a dominant economic partner for Russia, but many Russians are concerned about China’s increasing influence and the lack of substantial Chinese investment in Russia.
Military relations: Unlike the strong military alignment seen in the Sino-Soviet alliance of 1950, today’s cooperation is not as deeply integrated, particularly in military terms. China has not provided direct military aid to Russia in the Ukraine conflict, which would have been expected in a deeply allied relationship.
Public sentiment: There is skepticism about the partnership in both Russia and China. Russian citizens are not entirely supportive of Chinese products or investments, and many Chinese question the long-term economic and military viability of Russia.
Historical context
Sino-Soviet Alliance (1950s): This period marked a high point of cooperation, with the Soviet Union providing substantial economic, technological and military support to China. Yet, the alliance ended with the Sino-Soviet split by the late 1950s. This contradicts Lavrov’s characterization that current relations are unprecedented in their depth.
Strategic Partnership (1996-2014): The strategic partnership strengthened after the Cold War, especially under Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin. However, China still balanced its relations with the West, highlighting that the partnership was pragmatic, not based purely on mutual trust.
Anti-Western Alignment (2014-2025): The relations have become closer since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Ukraine invasion. China has been providing crucial economic support. Beijing, however, avoids direct military aid to evade Western sanctions and maintains neutrality. This signals that the cooperation is based on shared opposition to the West, not genuine trust or an alliance akin to that of the 1950s.
Current economic dependence
Moscow is now heavily dependent on Beijing: China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, and Russia plays a key role in supplying China with oil and gas.
The economic relationship has its imbalances, however. China’s total investments in Russia remain relatively low compared with its global investments.
China still prioritizes its global economic ties, while Russia has become increasingly dependent on Beijing.
Vedomosti, Russia’s leading business daily, reported that China rarely invests directly in Russia, noting that while Russia seeks high-tech investments, China prioritizes mining, real estate, and banking.
Since 2023, China has been Russia’s largest trading partner, whereas Russia ranks only sixth among China’s top trade partners.
Skepticism in both countries
Russians question Chinese investment and the long-term benefits, while many Chinese doubt Russia’s economic resilience and military strength.
In February 2025, FilterLabs released the results of research that used its Talisman data tool to analyze Chinese and Russian news and social media.
Talisman’s analysis reveals deep skepticism about Russia among Chinese social media users, many of whom question whether Russia’s economy is truly as resilient as Moscow claims, whether its military strength matches its rhetoric, and what its long-term intentions are. These doubts suggest that despite official narratives of strong ties, public confidence in Russia within China is far from unanimous.
The research also shows that online sentiments in Russia toward economic cooperation with China are more negative than official narratives suggest.
International sanctions have pushed many Western products out of Russia, allowing Chinese goods to fill the gap in sectors such as automobiles and technology. While their market share grows due to affordability and geopolitical shifts, many Russians remain skeptical and dissatisfied with Chinese products, FilterLabs reported.
In both countries, social media discussions are consistently less positive than mainstream press coverage, which itself was not uniformly supportive, revealing underlying skepticism about the partnership.
“Their partnership is vulnerable,” FilterLabs founder Jonathan Teubner told VOA.
Conclusion
While Lavrov’s statement reflects an official narrative of a strong and enduring partnership, the truth is more nuanced. Relations are indeed closer than at any point since the 1950s, but they are shaped more by pragmatism, economic necessity and shared opposition to Western influence than by deep trust or historical affinity. In both countries, public opinion reveals skepticism, and the economic and military cooperation, while growing, is not without concerns.
