The war in Ukraine looks set to escalate again. Sunday’s deadly Russian rocket attack on the city of Sumy in northeastern Ukraine has made it more challenging than ever to find common ground between the two sides, to form the basis of a ceasefire or peace negotiations.
“Russia is waging deliberate war on the civilian population,” Wilfried Jilge, a Ukraine expert and historian of Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told DW.
“Sumy is a new extreme, but it’s not the first. I think we still haven’t grasped just how brutal this regime is, both at home and abroad.”
Jilge adds that this is not the first time Russia has attacked civilian targets under false pretenses, either. On Monday, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed in a statement to media outlets that the Sumy attack had been aimed solely at military targets.
It said the Iskander missiles had struck a meeting of Ukrainian military commanders, killing 60 Ukrainian soldiers. The ministry accused Ukraine of using civilians as human shields.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense issued a statement clarifying that the Russian missiles had killed 34 people, including two children, and injured 119.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked US President Donald Trump to visit Ukraine to gain a firsthand impression of the savagery of the war. However, Trump told the press, “This is Biden’s war. This is not my war.” Asked whether the Russian strike could have been unintentional, he said: “You’d have to ask Russia that. I was told that they made a mistake.”
Kremlin: ‘Taurus delivery constitutes further escalation’
Germany and Russia’s positions are also diametrically opposed. In a television interview, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, suggested supplying Ukraine withTaurus cruise missiles.
The Kremlin responded immediately, declaring that any delivery by Germany of Taurus missiles to Ukraine would constitute “a further escalation.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said other European countries were going down a similar path and that this was contributing to prolonging the war.
Mutual accusations
Just one month ago, the hope of a ceasefire after more than three years of war seemed within reach. In a two-hour phone call on March 18, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day moratorium for both sides on attacks on energy infrastructure.
However, even during the moratorium, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating the agreement. It was not possible to obtain independent confirmation of the precise circumstances and authenticity of these claims.
Jilge sees these minimal agreements as part of a larger strategy. “Russia is in no hurry whatsoever,” he says. “The Kremlin is speculating on division among Western countries. It believes it’s possible that the Americans will withdraw from Europe and keep reducing aid for Ukraine.”
However, he does see a “small glimmer of hope” in the extension of US sanctions on Russia. On April 10, Trump extended the sanctions originally imposed by President Joe Biden in April 2021 for another year. This renewal comes into effect on April 15.
EU: ‘We have to support Ukraine more’
In Jilge’s view, Europe now has to take the lead. He comments that there is still plenty of scope for tightening sanctions and that Europe could already integrate Ukraine in the continent’s defense.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, wants to do just that. At the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, she announced another package of new, tougher sanctions against Russia. There will also be more weapons shipments to Ukraine.
“What is clear is that we have to support Ukraine more,” she told reporters.
Accordingly, the EU has pledged to provide Ukraine with 2 million rounds of ammunition for heavy artillery this year as part of a broader military support initiative worth €5 billion ($5.6 billion).
“One way forward is to invest massively in Ukraine’s arms industry so it can scale up its own production capacities,” Jilge says. “I believe it’s important to show that Ukraine is not simply a burden — it can also be the solution.”
Ukraine has significantly ramped up its weapons production since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. The country now produces 50% of the ammunition it uses in combat itself, including the Bohdana self-propelled howitzer, drones, and repurposed air defense systems.
‘They are eradicating all that is Russian’
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insists that lasting peace can only be achieved if what he calls the “causes of the conflict” are addressed. At the international Antalya Diplomacy Forum last week, Lavrov said these causes included “lack of respect for Russian minorities in Ukraine.”
He declared that it was Russia’s goal to “100% ensure” that the minority rights, as enshrined in the UN Charter, of people who have lived in those territories for centuries are respected.
“They are eradicating all that is Russian in the territory of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic,” Lavrov declared. “The Russian language and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church have been banned.”
Lavrov left only one backdoor open for negotiations: the United States. “When the Ukrainian and American delegations agreed on a document in Riyadh on March 24 in favor of a 30-day ceasefire,” he said, “it happened because the Americans said: no NATO, and no discussion about the status of the territories.”
‘Trump wants to be done with this war’
It is currently unclear whether or how the negotiations between the US and Russia will continue. On Monday, Trump announced that he would deliver “some very good proposals” on ending the war in Ukraine “very soon.”
“Trump wants to be done with this war and obtain a quick peace,” says Jilge. However, there is growing criticism in the US of his dealings with Russia. Jilge comments that the tone adopted by both US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, differs significantly from the president’s.
In a post on X, Kellogg, a retired US general, spoke plainly: “Today’s Palm Sunday attack by Russian forces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency. There are scores of civilians dead and wounded. As a former military leader, I understand targeting, and this is wrong. It is why President Trump is working hard to end this war.”
This article has been translated from German.
