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Energy demand across the Pacific Northwest could double in the next 20 years, not because of your coffee maker or stereo, but because of data centers, electric vehicles and increasing pushes to electrify homes and businesses, according to a recent forecast from the Northwest Power and Conservation Council.
Even the way we consume electricity appears to be shifting away from typical human behaviors and more toward an ever-persistent hum in the background.
The region’s hunger for power could grow even faster than recent projections anticipated and spike more often as climate change worsens. At the same time the addition of new power sources, like wind or solar, can be sluggish at times, further heightening the risk that the grid could falter when we need it most.
And, increasingly, Washington is on its own. President Donald Trump is firing federal workers en masse, thrusting much-needed electrical projects into question and actively blocking renewable energy.
Officials with the council, an interstate agency representing Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington, gathered in a video call Tuesday afternoon to discuss their latest forecast for how energy demand will increase over the next two decades.
Predicting that far into the future is a tricky business. Jeff Allen, a council member from Idaho commended the group for the effort.
“Phew,” Allen said. “Takes guts.”
One thing’s for sure, though. The Pacific Northwest is going to need a lot more electricity in the coming years.
The broad strokes are that the region’s energy demand could double as early as 2046, according to the council.
Data centers are the biggest immediate source of new energy demand, followed by the increasing number of electric vehicles. That second group includes not only personal vehicles but government fleets, delivery vehicles for companies like Amazon and electric school buses, said Steven Simmons, a council forecasting analyst.
Building electrification and the incoming production of hydrogen will also boost energy demand, though not as much as much as data centers and EVs.
The way in which we consume energy is also changing, Allen said, recalling a recent conversation with a utility in Idaho. It used to be that energy use would behave like a human, ramping up as people rose in the morning and tapering off as they went to bed. Increasingly it’s behaving like a machine.
“Meaning it’s on all the time,” Allen said.
Demand for the year used to peak in the winter months as well. But as global warming worsens, utilities have been forced to confront new — and growing — summer peaks in demand, further complicating the picture. This trend also threatens the region’s biggest source of electricity: hydropower.
In recent years the Pacific Northwest generally consumed around 22,000 megawatts of power a year, Simmons said.
For context, one megawatt is enough to power nearly 800 homes for a year.
But by 2046, consumption could double to around 44,000 megawatts a year with seasonal peaks spiking as high as 60,000 megawatts.
As early as 2030, demand for electricity could outpace supply during these peaks, according to a report published last year by the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee.
“We’ve got our hands full, that’s for sure,” said KC Golden, a representative for Washington on the Power and Conservation Council.
Adding new generation and transmission will take time, effort and money. But an added benefit is the lessening use of fossil fuels, which are worsening the global warming trend.
Don’t ignore the ability for people, businesses and governments to curb energy usage, Golden noted. Energy officials across the region have tools to influence how demand is met. Decades ago, power providers could ask major industries, like aluminum smelters, to cut usage when demand was too high. And the companies were paid for their cooperation.
“Certainly there’s some possibility to shape when we crunch the data we need for cryptocurrency,” Golden said.
This 20-year forecast likely shows the high end of how demand will shape up, Simmons said. There will be more efficiency upgrades and changes in how utilities influence demand moving forward, both of which can help to stem the rising tide.
“I guarantee you we’re in for some surprises over the next 20 years,” Simmons said.
