Israel’s Iron Dome defense system is a technological marvel.
The platform combines state-of-the-art radar detection with automated mobile missile defense batteries to defend the nation of just under 10 million people.
It has been in operation since 2011, allowing Israel’s military defenses to detect incoming missiles, assess their likely impact point, and intercept them before they can do harm.
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According to Britannica, Israel’s Iron Dome had an 85% interception rate during its 2012 conflict with Hamas. That number improved to 90% during the Gaza war of 2014.
This week, President Donald Trump unveiled his $175 billion plan to mimic that system.
The U.S. version has been dubbed the Golden Dome, in honor of Trump’s favorite decorative motif.
“It will be capable of intercepting missiles launched from the other side of the world,” he said from the Oval Office with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “Even if they’re launched from space.”
He initiated the program via an executive order in January, and a Tuesday Politico report said the president was planning to announce the first tranche of $25 billion in funding attached to the White House budget currently making its way through Congress.
President Trump has suggested that much of the work will be building the software that links existing defense systems with new ones that can track and shoot down ballistic and cruise missiles.
Image source: Howard/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
Billions of taxpayer dollars could go to these companies to build the Golden Dome
To bridge the link, Congress will need to agree to spend at least another $150 billion over the next two years. However, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the true price tag of the program at over $500 billion over two decades.
While President Trump may not be able to secure enough spending for the entire project, the initial $25 billion is almost guaranteed to pass as part of the reconciliation bill.
Trump wants to spend that money on space-based sensors, new interceptor technologies, and laser weapons to intercept incoming missiles.
Analysts at JP Morgan, led by Seth Seifman, say that only a few defense contractors can pull this off for the president.
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The firm points out that “these are mostly nascent capabilities, not refinements of existing systems,“ meaning in addition to building software for existing systems, they will have to build up these systems’ capabilities.
Meanwhile, the usual players, like Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) Next Generation Interceptor, aren’t set to debut until FY30, and Northrop Grumman’s (NOC) hypersonic interceptor may not debut for another decade.
L3Harris (LHX) received a special shoutout during Monday’s presidential briefing, and Seifman believes the company “is well-positioned within a portion of Golden Dome that should see a lot of resources.“
The firm reiterated its overweight rating and $255 price target on the company.
While those other companies have limitations, they, along with Raytheon (RTX) , are all expected to see at least some cut of the money. There is also speculation that software companies like SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril will also be involved.
But the note emphasizes that President Trump’s dream of getting this whole deal paid for and finished in three years isn’t realistic, and Trump’s successor may not be inclined to finish what he started.
Meaning this infusion of taxpayer dollars could be a one-time deal for this specific program.
The Iron Dome isn’t bulletproof
Despite its impressive success rate during the earlier years of its life, the Iron Dome did have trouble defending Israel during the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that has precipitated the current conflict between the two sides.
Hamas fired about 2,200 rockets on October 7 in just 20 minutes. The 10 Iron Dome batteries across the country could not handle the volume, resulting in some casualties attributed to rocket fire, according to Britannica.
Opponents of the president’s plan point out that one of the reasons Israel’s Iron Dome works so well is that the system is only protecting an area that is about the same size as New Jersey.
The U.S. is obviously much bigger.
Another criticism is that, unlike Israel, the U.S. does not reside in missile alley. Unless the missiles are being fired from Canada, the U.S. current missile defense system is capable of handling most reasonable attacks without spending hundreds of billions of dollars.
Finally, students of history may find parallels between Trump’s plan and Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense “Star Wars” Initiative. That missile defense system, designed to stop a nuclear holocaust, never got off the ground due to its $1 trillion price tag.
Thankfully, the U.S. was not annihilated, despite not spending the money.
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