US public opinion appears to be against military involvement in Israel’s war with Iran [Getty]
As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues into its second week, many around the world are anxiously anticipating what Tel Aviv’s major ally, the United States, will now do.
US President Donald Trump has given mixed messages about the war, and on Thursday denied a report in the Wall Street Journal saying that a US attack plan had been approved. On the same day, the president also confirmed that he had given himself a two-week deadline to decide whether to go ahead with an attack on Iran.
The New Arab looks at five key factors surrounding the issue of possible US intervention.
1. Israel needs US weaponry
Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran as Tehran and Washington were engaged in mediated talks about the country’s nuclear programme. Israel says it is acting to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and has in turn targeted the country’s key nuclear facilities.
However, much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains deep underground, with many experts speculating that Tel Aviv will require the fire power of the US to totally take out the Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which Israel estimates to be around 300ft below ground.
According to a Guardian report on Thursday citing unnamed US defence officials, Trump was told by advisors that 13.6-tonne (30,000lb) GBU-57 bombs would take out the Fordo facility, however the president is yet to be convinced. The officials said that an analysis shared with them said that for the Fordo facility to be completely destroyed, the US would have to soften the ground first with conventional bombs, and then employ a tactical nuclear bomb.
2. The US public has little appetite for war
Donald Trump rode into his second term as president on an ‘America First’ platform that promised to end Washington’s ‘forever wars’ and focus on strengthening the country’s economy. As a potential war with Iran looms, many key public figures associated with Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ movement have been keen to point this out, including influential conservative political commentators Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens. Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green – considered a staunch MAGA advocate – has also spoken out against war with Iran, while Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has also expressed her opposition.
An Economist/YouGov poll published on Wednesday found that 60 percent of Americans do not want a US military intervention in Iran, with this percentage remaining similar across party lines.#
3. Regime change?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long called for regime change in Iran – a sentiment he has reiterated in recent days. Israel’s allies – including the US – have not expressed the same interest, with Trump appearing to focus on Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
4. Iran’s retaliation
It is feared that if cornered, Iran will attempt to disrupt global markets and supply chains by closing off the Strait of Hormuz — the only sea passage into the Persian Gulf.
About a fifth of the volume of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the strait on a daily basis, with disruption to the area having the potential to send fuel prices soaring.
Concerns have also been raised that Iran could attack US commercial and military assets in Gulf states that are keen to stay out of the conflict.
5. The conflict may widen
Iran’s non-state actor allies may still join in the latest round of fighting against Israel, despite having been sidelined so far. Lebanon’s Hezbollah — once one of the world’s most powerful non-state armed groups — had much of its leadership and capabilities wiped out by Israel in their most recent round of fighting in late 2024, and in its weakened position is under pressure within Lebanon to disarm.
Hezbollah have not launched attacks on Israel in support of Iran, however if the conflict widens this could change. Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Yemen have also threatened to wade into the conflict.
