The United States wants to know what Japan and Australia would do in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
Under Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby is under fire, as he sometimes is these days.
But the US has asked a reasonable question since the Americans are expected to do the heavy-lifting over Taiwan, and they need help. The United States is also treaty-obligated to defend both Japan and Australia in event of a fight unrelated to Taiwan.
The question appears to have been asked behind closed doors – which is good – but also appears to have been leaked. Which is not good – no matter who leaked it.
Even friends don’t like being ordered around.
And another reason to keep it out of public eye? If Japan and Australia equivocate on support for Taiwan, which they undoubtedly will, that’s surely a signal to Beijing to press ahead.
Washington absolutely needs those commitments – but privately.
Ironically, even the US isn’t entirely clear on Taiwan – although it’s reasonably expected to fight since it does more than everyone else put together to bolster Taiwan’s defense..
And if Washington is going to war, it’s helpful to know who else is coming – and with what.
As for Japanese, they understand that a PRC-controlled Taiwan is an existential risk. There’s no sense of urgency, however.
War planning and preparations are lagging – beyond plans to evacuate Japan’s southern islands and building bomb shelters.
Tokyo has almost no security relationship with Taiwan.
On the plus side, Japan’s considerable support to the Philippines – radars, patrol boats, six retired destroyers and dual use infrastructure – is done with an eye toward a Taiwan fight. And one Japanese official explained that the long-range missiles (current and more advanced versions) that Japan has based on its southernmost island can reach quite a ways towards Taiwan and potentially beyond.
But it still appears Japan expects the US to handle things if Taiwan goes “hot” while Japan does what it feels like.
Washington is wise to get this ironed out beforehand.
Australia?
Will Australia play a role, let alone fight, if there is a conflict over Taiwan? Don’t be so sure.
The Australian military is game, but undersized and lacking capabilities and direction. And a powerful constituency in Australia is both anti-military and anti-American.
Prime Minister Albanese is in Beijing this week and is cozying up to China more than ever. The PRC banned exports of Australian lobster and wine a few years ago, and the possibility Beijing will do it again appears to have rattled Canberra.
The Australian Broadcast Corporation (ABC) said: “It’s entirely appropriate that Anthony Albanese is meeting Xi again before he meets Trump for the first time. Xi is more important than Trump now.”
Washington may be overestimating Australian support. Today’s Australia seems different from the one that stopped the Imperial Japanese Army in New Guinea in 1942.
Best to clear it up sooner than later.
More money
The Americans – as they’ve done for years – are also asking Japan and Australia to spend more on defense.
But even upping the budget doesn’t mean more capability and a willingness to use it – which is what the Pentagon is really asking for.
US requests need to include some well-thought-out advice on what to spend money on so as to be a more useful partner. Otherwise it’s just nagging.
As an exasperated Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka relayed to the Americans over 50 years ago: “Tell us what you need … and don’t back down.”
Getting heard
These hard questions are asked at the defense secretary / minister level. But that’s not where they are decided.
Washington would do well to quietly summon the Japanese and Australian ambassadors, one at a time, to the White House and explain things with President Trump in the room.
Maybe even slide a “non-paper” across the table. That’s the diplomatic equivalent of telling someone what you want, but without formally telling them what you want.
And don’t publicize it, if you can help it. Just make it clear you’re serious.
There is of course the added challenge of America’s partners thinking they can wait out the Trump administration. Such is life..
These questions should have been asked and answers received from America’s allies a decade ago.
To its credit, the Trump administration is at least asking.
And it’s a fair question to ask when Americans are expected to do most of the dying in a fight over Taiwan – which is just as important to Japan and Australia as to the United States.
America needs help, and it needs to know where its friends stand long before the shooting starts.
“Winging it” means losing.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He was the first Marine liaison officer to the Japan Self-Defense Force, and is a fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning to America.
