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Tesla (NYSE: TSLA) is set to release its Q2 2025 earnings after the US market closes on Wednesday, July 24, 2025. This upcoming report is keenly anticipated by investors and analysts alike, as it will provide a crucial snapshot of the electric vehicle (EV) giant’s performance in what looks like yet another tough quarter. Here we’ll look at Tesla’s Q2 earnings estimates and see how analysts rate the stock ahead of the report.
Analysts expect Tesla’s Q2 revenues to come in at $22.8 billion, 11% lower than the $25.5 billion it reported in the corresponding quarter last year. While energy storage and services revenue are expected to contribute positively, they may not fully compensate for the weakness in automotive sales.
Tesla is Expected to Report a Drop in Deliveries
Tesla reported a 13.5% YoY fall in Q2 deliveries. It is the second consecutive quarter when the company’s deliveries fell in double digits. It was the worst ever decline for the Elon Musk-run company and came on the heels of it reporting its first annual drop in deliveries last year. During the Q2 earnings, Tesla is expected to provide an update on its 2025 delivery guidance. The commentary would be crucial as most analysts now expect Tesla to report an annual drop in deliveries this year after a dismal first half.
Analysts expect Tesla to post an EPS of $0.43 in Q2. The company had posted an EPS of $0.54 in the corresponding quarter last year. Notably, Tesla’s profits have been falling for the last many quarters as it has lowered prices to push sales. These price cuts have dented Tesla’s fat vehicle margins, which were once the envy of the industry.
Analysts Are Mixed on Tesla Ahead of Q2 Earnings
Analysts are mixed on Tesla ahead of its Q2 earnings. Along with the poor fundamentals of the automotive business, which accounts for the bulk of Tesla’s revenues, CEO Elon Musk’s political activities are also making a section of the market apprehensive.
Musk expanding his political activity with the new party is also making markets apprehensive about the billionaire’s ability to devote adequate time to Tesla. Such concerns have been around for quite some time, as apart from Tesla, Musk also heads several other companies like SpaceX and Neuralink. Of late, he has added X and his artificial intelligence (AI) startup xAI to the ever-growing list of companies that he owns.
Dan Ives on Musk’s Politics
As Tesla bull and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said, “Tesla needs Musk as CEO and its biggest asset and not heading down the political route yet again…while at the same time getting on Trump’s bad side.”
He added, “Very simply, Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story.”
According to Ives, “While the core Musk supporters will back Musk at every turn no matter what, there is broader sense of exhaustion from many Tesla investors that Musk keeps heading down the political track.” Musk, meanwhile, wasn’t too impressed with Ives’ comments and in a post on X asked him to “shut up.”
Meanwhile, Wedbush still has a Street-high target price of $500 on Tesla. Wedbush maintains a bullish view, arguing that Q2 delivery numbers were “better-than-feared” and highlighting Tesla’s return to sales growth in China in June. They often view Tesla as more of an AI/Tech company with future businesses like Dojo supercomputing, FSD, and Robotaxi.
Analysts Are Mixed on Tesla Stock
Several analysts, including William Blair, have explicitly cited Elon Musk’s increasing involvement in politics and his polarizing public image as a “distraction” that is potentially “tarnishing” the brand and impacting sales, particularly in European markets. UBS and JPMorgan, both with more bearish price targets, also highlight concerns related to valuation and the full-year outlook.
There’s a concern that the revenue from selling regulatory credits, which has been a significant contributor to Tesla’s net income, might be impacted by changes in government policies, such as the elimination of EV tax credits in the US.
JPMorgan continues to be one of the most bearish, with a Street-low price target of $115, citing ongoing risks to the full-year outlook due to falling deliveries.
UBS also maintained its “Strong Sell” rating on Tesla with a $215 price target, reiterating that it believes Tesla is “fundamentally overvalued.”
Tesla Is Facing Strong Competition in China
Analysts are also apprehensive about Tesla’s competitive positioning in China and the intensifying competition from Chinese companies, both in China as well as globally, particularly in Europe. In April, BYD sold more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) than Tesla in Europe. While the Elon Musk-run company has been in Europe for quite some time now and also has one of its Gigafactories in Berlin, BYD entered the region only in late 2022. Moreover, BYD cars face tariffs in the EU, while the cars built by Tesla at its Germany Gigafactory are exempt from these tariffs.
BYD surpassed Tesla’s total sales in 2022, even as the US EV giant retained the title of the biggest seller of NEVs. It hit yet another milestone when its 2024 revenues surpassed those of Tesla. BYD’s annual revenues rose 29% YoY to $107 billion last year, while Tesla’s revenues were around $97.7 billion. The steep rise in BYD’s sales was led by a record 4.27 million deliveries, which was well ahead of Tesla.
BYD Is Expected to Sell More NEVs than TSLA in 2025
BYD has sold more NEVs than Tesla in the first half of 2025 on the back of strength in both Chinese and global markets, where its deliveries have hit record highs for seven consecutive months. The Chinese Ev giant looks set to snatch the title of biggest NEV seller from Tesla this year as the latter continues to battle tepid sales, and expectations of a yearly rise in 2025 deliveries look bleak by the day.
We’ll get to hear more on Tesla’s growth outlook in the upcoming earnings call. While Tesla bulls highlight the potential of autonomous driving and the Optimus humanoid that Tesla is developing, bears are fixated on the short-term delivery and margin woes.
