A woman holding a sign showing Rached Ghannouchi to show support for the Ennahda Movement leader on 21 February 2023 in Tunis [Hasan Mrad/DeFodi Images via Getty]
With each day that passes it seems that all hope for a change in any approach to governance from the Tunisian presidency is unlikely to materialise. Nothing is proceeding in line with the aspirations of the long-suffering Tunisian public, which is effectively being held captive to the will of President Kais Saied.
Since launching Tunisia upon a new trajectory on July 25, 2021 (when Saied dismissed the government, froze parliament, announced a state of emergency, and assumed executive authority) he has seized every opportunity to embrace conspiracy narratives as his chosen method of governance. It is also his preferred weapon for eliminating opponents and tightening his grip on the public sphere.
Since that date, numerous cases have emerged under the label “conspiring against state security,” with many opposition leaders – including politicians, former parliamentarians, and ministers – now languishing behind bars. The current reality reflects a perilous slide from a democratic revolution to an individual authoritarianism cloaked in populist slogans.
In this context, the recent case known as “Conspiracy 2” marked the latest episode in reinforcing this repressive trajectory. Just a few days ago, the Fifth Criminal Chamber specialising in terrorism cases in Tunisia issued its preliminary verdict in the case, which involved 21 defendants.
The sentences ranged from 12 to 35 years in prison. Among the most prominent figures convicted were former Speaker of Parliament and leader of the Ennahda Movement Rached Ghannouchi, former Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, former Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem, and the former Chief of Staff to the President, and Nadia Akacha.
The presidency’s recourse to the judiciary, which has increasingly taken on the character of a systematic political purge, is no longer hidden, even from some of the president’s own supporters, who have begun to feel uneasy about the sheer number and implausibility of the cases.
The idea that a new conspiracy has been unearthed every two months, or that 14 coup plots have taken place in four years, is not merely a wild exaggeration of threats – it is a troubling sign of the absence of any real political project. Instead, it reflects a pathological security obsession and the systematic use of the judiciary as a tool for revenge and settling scores.
Nor has this growing security obsession stopped at targeting political opponents and dissidents; it now extends to anyone expressing a dissenting opinion, even those who are not directly involved in politics. As a result, journalists, activists, bloggers, and unionists have also been arrested, in what seems a deliberate assault on freedom of expression and public debate. These developments have revived memories of the intense police repression that the Tunisian people rose up against in 2011, when they dreamed of a democratic state that would uphold the dignity and rights of its citizens.
Anyone who has followed Kais Saied’s political rhetoric since his arrival at the Carthage Palace will have noticed that it is rarely free of terms such as “conspiracy,” “infiltrators,” “traitors,” and “agents”. These terms are routinely used to justify arrests, which the Tunisian presidency is far more keen to pursue than to acknowledge policy failures or review government performance. Worse, this rhetoric is no longer aimed solely at the political opposition – it now targets anyone who voices objections or poses uncomfortable questions, including journalists, activists, university professors, and even judges.
Therefore, expressing an opinion today in Tunisia has become dangerous.
We mustn’t forget that the judiciary itself is a victim of the regime’s overreach, stripped of its independence and unable to protect itself, let alone defend Tunisians. It is no surprise, then, that people find themselves living in a republic ruled by decrees; a country run according to the whims and suspicions of an individual, rather than a state based on institutions and long-term planning.
What is even more troubling about the situation in Tunisia today is not just the ever-widening scope of repression, but the complete absence of any alternative political vision. Saied, who built his legitimacy on his anti-elite, anti-party, and anti-institution discourse, has failed to present a clear economic project, any tangible administrative reforms, or a coherent foreign policy. Instead, he has relied solely on populist narratives that shift blame onto others and justify failure using claims of conspiracy and opposition.
Meanwhile, as the country sinks deeper into a suffocating economic crisis, the dinar continues to plummet, and unemployment and emigration rates soar, the president’s only response to these mounting disasters is to turn to the judiciary – as if arresting Tunisians is the only solution to every one of the country’s problems.
Ultimately, the crisis Tunisia faces today lies not only in the malicious authoritarianism of the ruling power, embodied by the president, but also in the lack of any effective checks on power within the political system that emerged after July 25, and the absence of constitutional and legal safeguards following this date that could restrain the presidential authority and open the door to political alternatives.
The 2022 Constitution, imposed through a referendum with low voter turnout, granted the president sweeping powers with no real oversight. It reduced the parliament to a symbolic institution and effectively abolished the principle of separation of powers. As a result, any meaningful return to democracy must begin with a fundamental reassessment of the current constitutional framework.
In light of all the above – and on the anniversary of Saied’s “new path” – ushered in on July 25, 2021 – it does not appear that the country is moving towards correcting the course of the revolution, as Saied claims.
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of this trajectory is the growing normalisation of repression (once again) among the Tunisian public and the gradual internalisation of the idea that democracy itself is an unrealistic and impossible-to-achieve luxury. This is the very outcome Saied’s regime has sought his self-coup, as it has worked tirelessly to strip the revolution of its symbols, devalue politics as a tool for change, and to pacify society in the name of security and national sovereignty.
Tunisians now stand at a critical crossroads. Either they can accept an authoritarian state cloaked in conspiracy rhetoric, or they can reclaim their agency and return to the democratic path. The urgent question remains: How long will this absurd situation continue? And when will the ruling power realise the futility of its determination to manufacture enemies, and that the real crisis lies not in its opponents; but in its own approach, its policies, and its vision of the state and its people?
Dr Bashar Narsh is a Syrian writer and researcher specialising in international relations. He has written for a number of Arabic-language media outlets including Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, The New Arab’s Arabic-language sister edition.
Translated by Rose Chacko.
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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or its staff.
