COLUMBIA, S.C. — Three years before 2028, the outlines of the next presidential race are already growing clearer, with large fields of potential primary candidates in both parties already making early moves.
But one big thing is very much unclear for Democrats: which state will vote first when the primaries start.
The 2024 election was the first in almost two decades that saw major change to the top of the Democratic primary calendar, booting Iowa — the longtime first-in-the-nation caucus — and sliding South Carolina’s primary to the fore, challenging New Hampshire’s traditional leading role.
The moves came amid discontent with Iowa Democrats’ messy 2020 caucuses and recognition of the role Black voters play in the Democratic Party — and with heavy influence over the party from then-President Joe Biden, whose South Carolina primary win in 2020 set him on the path to the White House.
In South Carolina, which was tapped to host the Democrats’ first sanctioned primary for the first time in 2024, state Democrats are adamant they will be first in line on the primary calendar again in 2028.
“Oh yeah, we’re first,” South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain told NBC News at the party’s headquarters in Columbia earlier this month. She added, “South Carolina is first. That means the South is first. So we’re gonna continue to fight for that.”
Yet national Democrats and party leaders from other states have signaled that they’re open to considering changes to the party’s primary calendar.
In February, shortly after he was elected to his post, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin demurred on whether he thought the primary calendar should change, telling reporters that rank-and-file members would be the ones to decide whether to change the primary schedule.
“If they do, my commitment … is that it’s open and transparent in terms of the process,” Martin said.
He added that if the calendar were to change, he would back a “rigorous,” “efficient” and “fair” schedule.
“It has to honor the traditions and diversity of our party while also battle-testing our nominee in a way that helps us win,” he added.
The DNC echoed Martin’s February comments in a statement to NBC News, while also signaling with more certainty that the party would take a look at changing the calendar.
“The DNC is committed to running a fair, transparent, and rigorous process for the 2028 primary calendar. All states will have an opportunity to participate,” DNC Deputy Communications Director Abhi Rahman said in a statement.
So far, no states have officially stepped forward with a bid to take over South Carolina’s newly won first-in-the-nation status on the Democratic presidential calendar.
That’s partially because the primary is still so far away, and any changes to the calendar will be initiated by the DNC’s powerful Rules and Bylaws Committee, which will likely not examine this issue for at least another year.
Jaime Harrison, a former chair of the DNC and of the South Carolina Democratic Party, argued that his state deserves the first-in-the-nation spotlight in an open race, after Biden ran for re-election in 2024.
“I think South Carolina needs to get a shot at an open primary situation where it is the first in the nation,” Harrison told NBC News in Columbia.
Spain, the current South Carolina Democratic Party chair, called her state a “proven testing ground” with a “vast array” of Democratic voters.
“You know, the rural voters, the urban voters, the college students, Black voters, older voters, retirees. We have that all, and we’re a small state” with “inexpensive media markets” for buying TV ads, she said.
But Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats have signaled that they won’t let the Palmetto State keep its position without a fight. Plenty of states campaigned for early slots last time the calendar was open, from new entries to the likes of Nevada, a newer early state that petitioned to go to the front of the calendar.
In a statement, Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart told NBC News that while the party is currently focused on the state’s Senate and gubernatorial contests next year, “I do expect to have tough and direct conversations with the DNC regarding our Iowa caucuses and the serious concerns surrounding the Biden 2024 calendar.”
“National Democrats let Trump get a head start in the 2024 campaign by excluding Iowa,” Hart added.
New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Raymond Buckley was more dismissive of the DNC’s calendar changes. He noted a state law that dictates that New Hampshire must hold first-in-the-nation primaries one week before any subsequent party primary elsewhere.
“The scheduling and the implementation of the primary is not a Democratic Party event,” Buckley told NBC News.
In 2024, New Hampshire bucked the national Democratic Party’s new calendar, holding its primary ahead of South Carolina’s despite threats from the DNC that the state would lose delegates to the Democratic convention.
Biden won the New Hampshire primary in January as a write-in candidate after refusing to put his name on the ballot in the non-party-sanctioned primary. The DNC eventually voted to allow New Hampshire to send its Democratic delegates to the convention in Chicago.
Buckley added that this election cycle, “we will work with the other states to put together a calendar that certainly respects diversity, respects New Hampshire law and respects the fact that the bottom line is we need to win the White House in 2028.”
Those eyeing 2028 presidential runs, including Democratic senators, governors and former Biden administration officials, seem to be acknowledging in their early travel that some combination of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will lead the party’s nominating process in three years.
Already, four Democratic governors — Wes Moore of Maryland, Tim Walz of Minnesota, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Gavin Newsom of California — have visited South Carolina this year for events with voters. Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota have attended events in New Hampshire in 2025. And former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg attended a town hall in Iowa, while Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona has plans to visit next month.
Still, voters and Democratic officials in South Carolina plan to fight to stay first.
“I’m going to fight with everything I have to make sure that, at least for this 2028 cycle, that it remains the first in the nation,” Harrison said.
