Studies from Central China, Russia, and Central Europe indicate there was just as much (or more) warming and drought before 1900, or when CO2 concentrations were under 300 ppm. [emphasis, links added]
A new 1606 to 2016 Central China winter (minimum) temperature reconstruction (Jiang et al., 2024) reveals cold periods only occurred in nine years of the 1600s (1663-1672), but there were 71 years of cold periods during the 20th century (1900-1942, 1959-1979, 1985-1994).
Notably, CO2 hovered around 278 ppm during the 1600s and 1700s, but it rose from 290 ppm to 370 ppm during the 1900s.
From 1650-1750, the winter temperatures in Central China were 0.44°C warmer than they were during the 20th century.
The authors were surprised by this temperature result, as 1650-1750 falls within the timing of the Little Ice Age.
“Surprisingly, during 1650–1750, the lowest winter temperature within the research area was about 0.44 °C higher than that in the 20th century, which differs significantly from the concept of the ‘cooler’ Little Ice Age during this period. This result is validated by the temperature results reconstructed from other tree-ring data from nearby areas, confirming the credibility of the reconstruction.”
Finally, it should be noted that the year 1719 was 1.4°C warmer (-3.17°C) than the 1961-2016 average (-4.57°C).
A new 1803-2020 Central Europe precipitation reconstruction (Nagavciuc et al., 2025) determines droughts were more prolonged and pronounced during the 1800s than in the 1900s, as the 1900s were relatively wet.
Only one recent period (2007-2020) endured extreme drought, but it did not exceed the severity of the 1818-1835, 1845-1854, and 1882-1890 drought years.
“Interestingly, the most extreme wet periods occurred in the 20th century, while the most extreme dry periods were recorded in the 19th and 21st centuries.”
Finally, another new precipitation and temperature reconstruction (Kirdyanov et al., 2024) from the Russian Altai Mountains suggests “stable summer temperature signals” since the 1500s, with no obvious trend changes falling outside the long-term average.
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