Hezbollah’s complete absence from the new government formed in Lebanon offers a rare opportunity for the West to push for the dismantling of the terror group’s military capabilities, prof. Amatzia Baram, an expert in strategy and the Middle East from the University of Haifa said on Sunday.
On Saturday, Lebanon’s presidential office announced the formation of a new 24-member government led by Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam.
“For the first time since 2008, there are no Hezbollah representatives in the government,” Baram said.
While the new cabinet includes five representatives from the Amal Movement, led by Berri, he noted that Amal, despite being a longtime Hezbollah ally, has also been its rival in the past. “They are allies but also rivals.”
Baram explained that the government’s composition marks a significant shift in Lebanon’s political landscape. “If the new Lebanese government consists of 24 ministers, with five of them being Shia – even if they are loyal to Hezbollah – this still represents a major shift. Under agreements signed in 2008, any party holding a third of the cabinet seats has the power to veto all decisions,” he said.
In the past, Hezbollah and Amal together controlled more than a third of the government, enabling them to block any attempt to curb their influence. “The government wanted to act against Hezbollah, particularly concerning its armed capabilities, but it was unable to because Hezbollah would simply veto any such decision.”
Now, Baram suggests that Hezbollah’s position is more vulnerable than ever. “There’s also a chance that Hezbollah’s Christian and Druze allies in the new government will abandon them, and then they won’t even have a blocking third in the government. If that happens, the government could demand that Hezbollah disarm its heavy weaponry.”
A rare opportunity for the US
Baram emphasized that this change presents a rare opportunity for the United States and its allies. “What America and the West must push for is a resolution to dismantle Hezbollah’s armed capabilities. This could mark the culmination of a process that Israel initiated with the heavy blow it dealt to Hezbollah.”
Beyond Hezbollah’s military presence, the new government could also challenge its broader control over key sectors in Lebanon. “The influence extends beyond weapons – there is now a possibility to dismantle all the institutions Hezbollah has built as a ‘state within a state.’ This includes banks, control over Beirut’s airport and port, and its independent telecommunications network, which has operated without oversight. These are things that, for the first time since 2008, the government may now be able to address.”
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