Why putting boots on the ground in Ukraine still divides Europe

Good morning. In an hour from now, in the Diriyah palace in Riyadh, 4,600km from Brussels and 3,200km from Kyiv, Americans and Russians will formally start negotiations over the future of Ukraine and, by extension, Europe’s security.

In Paris yesterday evening, a meeting of European leaders convened to address this “decisive moment” in the continent’s history was depressingly indecisive, with disagreement over sending troops to enforce and ensure a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Today, I unpack that Paris bickering, while our Rome bureau chief reports on the health of the pope.

Crossfire

The proponents of last night’s meeting of a handful of European leaders in the Élysée Palace hoped that gathering in a small format would reduce the chance of obvious disagreement. That turned out not to be the case.

Context: US President Donald Trump’s decision to begin accelerated negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine has shocked European capitals, and sparked demands for bolder support to Kyiv and a European defence alternative to reliance on the US.

Hosted by France’s Emmanuel Macron, the leaders of Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK, plus the heads of Nato and the European Commission and Council, huddled at short notice to debate two major steps: committing peacekeeping troops to Ukraine and agreeing ways to fund a massive defence investment push.

On troops, the divisions were woefully stark. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz left the meeting saying he found even talk of such a move “irritating” and “an incomprehensible debate at the wrong time and about the wrong topic”. Italian premier Giorgia Meloni told the room the debate was “perplexing”; Spain and Poland were similarly against.

Macron, who first talked of “boots on the ground” a year ago, had tabled a proposal for a “reassurance force”. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer backed him up, saying he was “prepared to consider committing British forces on the ground, alongside others”.

Danish PM Mette Frederiksen left the meeting saying Starmer’s pledge was “positive” and that Copenhagen was “open to discussing many things”. Denmark has been one of Ukraine’s most important providers of weapons during the nearly three-year-long war.

Following the meeting, an EU official said all the leaders had agreed they were “ready to provide security guarantees, with modalities to be examined with each party, depending on the level of American support”.

On ways to increase defence spending, there was more consensus, with even the fiscally prudent Scholz endorsing a commission proposal to ease the EU’s deficit rules to allow for more defence expenditure.

But the failure to reach at least a rough agreement on the importance of a troop deployment has dashed hopes for Europe to quickly stake out a role in the US-Russia peace talks.

Still, for many capitals the biggest factor over whether to send troops will be if the US provides indirect support to them.

Asked yesterday if Washington would support European peacekeepers on the ground, Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, said: “I’ve been with President Trump, and the policy has always been: You take no options off the table.”

Chart du jour: Distress

Germany has lost almost a quarter of a million manufacturing jobs since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, and companies and politicians fear that Europe’s industrial heartland is suffering an irreversible decline.

Doctor’s orders

Pope Francis has been hospitalised for the past four days and faces a potentially lengthy stay in hospital due to a respiratory infection, writes Amy Kazmin.

Context: The head of the Catholic church has repeatedly suffered from respiratory ailments in the past few years, a serious concern for the 88-year-old who had part of one lung removed in his 20s.

Pope Francis was hospitalised on Friday after wrestling with an apparent bout of bronchitis. On Monday, the Vatican said tests had shown that he was battling a “polymicrobial infection of the respiratory tract”. The illness comes just as the Vatican kicked off its Catholic Jubilee, the holy year of forgiveness.

Before his hospitalisation, Francis kept a busy schedule, and last week severely criticised US President Donald Trump’s migration policies. In a letter to US bishops he said “the rightly formed conscience” must “express its disagreement with any measure that tacitly or explicitly identifies the illegal status of some migrants with criminality”.

The Vatican made clear that the pope’s treatment could take time, as tests had found two or more micro-organisms infecting his lungs. The statement did not specify which organisms or how they could be treated.

“All tests conducted up to today are indicative of a complex clinical picture that will require an appropriate hospital stay,” the statement said.

What to watch today

1. Senior US and Russian officials meet for talks about Ukraine’s future in Riyadh.

2. US special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg meets European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council president António Costa in Brussels.

3. EU finance ministers meet in Warsaw.

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