Is Tesla (TSLA -4.68%) an electric vehicle (EV) company? At first blush, it seems a silly question. It’s the most successful EV company in history, having parlayed its success with cars all the way to becoming the seventh-largest American company, with a market cap of more than $1 trillion.
Yet, CEO Elon Musk says there is another product that will take his company to the next level. Here’s what it is.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Tesla is today
Before we discuss what product could represent the future for Tesla, let’s recap the current state of the business. In a nutshell, it remains mostly an EV company.
As of its most recent quarter (the three months ending on Dec. 31), the company reported $25.7 billion in total revenue. Here’s how that broke down by segment:
- $19.8 billion (77%) from automaking
- $3.1 billion (12%) from energy storage and generation
- $2.8 billion (11%) from services and other sources
In other words, a little more than three out of every four dollars in Tesla sales came directly from EVs. What’s more, it could be argued that much of the services and energy storage sales (if not most) were downstream of EV sales.
So when Musk points to a non-EV product as the future, he means just that. It will take time for any product to upstage the main revenue stream, which is EV sales.
Nevertheless, investing is about skating to where the puck is going, not to where it is. And on that front, investors should know where Tesla is headed.
Simply put, it is trying to transition from an EV company to a robotics company. And the product that could lead that development is Optimus, its humanoid robot.
A game-changing product in the making?
Optimus is a humanoid robot that stands about 5-foot-8 and weighs around 125 pounds. It walks as fast as 5 miles per hour, can carry about 40 pounds, and is powered with a 52-volt battery pack.
Several Optimus prototypes were on display at Tesla’s We, Robot event last October. They handed out gift bags, chatted with guests, and even danced.
Yet, Musk sees the Optimus robot as far more than just a novelty to be rolled out at parties. It’s intended to serve as a labor-saving device, performing menial, repetitive, or dangerous tasks in any number of fields.
And if Tesla can eventually meet Musk’s goal of selling each Optimus for under $25,000, individual households could be willing to pay for a robot that could perform various around-the-house tasks. Indeed, how much would you pay if you never had to mow the lawn, wash the dishes, or do the laundry ever again?
On the most recent Tesla earnings call, Musk said, “I think long-term, Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue.”
And while that may seem like a fantastic figure to throw out, investors shouldn’t immediately dismiss it. After all, the smartphone — a far more humble device in both design and price point — has changed the world and generated comparable sales. According to Statista and Counterpoint Research data, total smartphone sales between 2014-2024 amounted to about $4.6 trillion.
In that Jan. 29 call with analysts, Musk said:
I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path, but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close, like maybe several times more than — I mean there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There’s a path to that. … it’s like a difficult path but it is an achievable path.
And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. So our focus is actually building towards that.
Even though Optimus remains a long way from generating significant sales for Tesla, investors should be aware of its potential. The company’s short-term prospects are closely tied to vehicle sales, energy storage, and advances in full self-driving and robotaxis, but its future may well be tied to Optimus.
