U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia, especially Myanmar, can advance America’s national security, economic interests and broader strategic goals in countering China’s expanding influence, foreign policy analysts say.
When U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in January, he pledged that under President Donald Trump, the State Department’s top priority would be the United States.
In a subsequent policy statement, Rubio argued for a pragmatic foreign policy that makes America more secure, “stronger and more prosperous.”
Some analysts say this approach should address the Asia-Pacific, particularly Myanmar, where Chinese influence has grown since the 2021 military coup. Under isolation and conflict, the ruling junta relies on Beijing for economic and military support.
Southeast Asia focus
With Rubio overseeing foreign policy, some experts see an opening for Washington to revamp its approach in Myanmar as part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy.
Hunter Marston, a researcher at the Australian National University, said Rubio recognizes Myanmar’s strategic importance in the U.S.-China rivalry.
“I do think there’s the possibility that the State Department will have some high-level interest in Myanmar,” Marston said. “This could be an opportunity, as I’ve argued in my commentaries for the Stimson Center, to review existing policy, assess its failures and explore adjustments that could make U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia more effective.”
Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia security expert at the National War College, said Myanmar is central to the U.S.-China competition.
“Southeast Asia is where the United States and China compete most directly, and this is, in particular, true in Myanmar,” he said.
Abuza noted Myanmar’s location at the South and Southeast Asia crossroads, which is critical for regional security and economic stability. He warned that China’s expanding presence in Rakhine State, including deep-sea ports, raises security concerns.
“If there’s ever a military conflict with China over Taiwan, for example, the oil and gas pipelines that supply Kunming will be very important,” he said.
He added that China and Russia leverage Myanmar to project power in the Indian Ocean.
“We do not want the Chinese to build up or have access to ports in Rakhine,” Abuza said. “We would like the Russians not to be able to pull into Yangon port.”
Rare earth elements
Abuza highlighted Myanmar’s rare earth elements, which are crucial for high-tech industries.
“China has a near monopoly, maybe not in mining anymore, but in reprocessing,” he said. “This is an absolute national security threat to the United States.”
He cited data indicating China obtains about 40% of its rare earths from Kachin State. The International Energy Agency reports that Myanmar’s share of global rare earth production rose from 0.2% to 14% from 2015 to 2023.
Global Witness, an organization that investigates human rights and environmental abuses, says China’s imports from Myanmar hit $1.4 billion in 2023, and China controls 90% of global rare earth processing in the world.
China’s growing foothold
Since the 2021 coup, the junta’s reliance on China has grown as international sanctions isolate Myanmar.
“China has expanded its foothold in influence in the country,” Marston said, noting that ethnic armed groups also recognize Beijing’s interests.
A Pacific Forum paper found that China prioritized the Rakhine State for its Belt and Road Initiative, tapping natural resources and access to the Bay of Bengal.
Nyunt Than, president of the Burmese American Democratic Alliance, said Myanmar’s strategic role extends beyond infrastructure and shapes China’s broader regional ambitions.
“Another key issue is China’s internal economic disparity,” he said. “While coastal regions are highly developed, the inland areas lag significantly behind.”
Nyunt Than explained that Beijing aims to turn Yunnan province into a major transportation and trade hub for Southeast Asia, including plans for a high-speed railway connecting Kunming to the region.
US regional focus
Marston argued that the U.S. reluctance to back Myanmar’s resistance — fearful of provoking China — has enabled Beijing’s advancement there.
“China has incrementally expanded its influence and presence in the country, regardless of U.S. policy,” he said.
At his January confirmation hearing, Rubio underscored ASEAN’s strategic role. On his first day as secretary of state, he met with Quad partners — India, Japan and Australia — to counter China’s influence.
Activists like Nyunt Than see this as proof that Washington values the region’s strategic importance.
“From Rubio’s remarks and how he views ASEAN, it is evident that U.S. policymakers understand Myanmar’s significance,” he said.
Experts, including Abuza, are optimistic that Rubio’s regional knowledge could lead to a more robust U.S. policy.
“I think Secretary of State Rubio has a very good understanding of Southeast Asia,” Abuza said.
“He is well aware of what communist governments are capable of and willing to do to advance their interests,” Abuza said, citing Rubio’s Cuban American background.
Marston concurred that Washington should engage more stakeholders, including ethnic armed groups seeking a federal democracy, because China’s involvement will persist regardless of U.S. policy.
“China is going to be involved whether or not the U.S. is active in Myanmar,” he said.
