Is it ‘the end of the road’ for Hong Kong’s once-powerful opposition?

HONG KONG – Hong Kong’s opposition camp of pro-democracy political parties once held enough power in the city’s legislature to block the passage of Bills that it deemed detrimental to the city’s residents.

In 2015, for example, it held more than a fifth of seats in the Legislative Council (LegCo), enough to block through filibustering a copyright Bill to address online piracy that it feared would suppress internet freedom.

Ten years later today, however, they are not even a shadow of their former selves – none of these parties hold any seats in the LegCo under a revamped electoral system designed to keep those critical of Beijing or the government of the day out of the legislature.

Indeed, the largest and most successful of them, the Democratic Party, is moving to disband in the coming months.

The second largest, the Civic Party, was dissolved in 2023, with other opposition outfits having shut down earlier.

The path ahead for Hong Kong’s opposition voices looks increasingly bleak.

Some observers whom The Straits Times spoke to say it is “the end of the road” for opposition representation in the city, although others remain hopeful for negotiation room in the narrowing space for differing views in civic society, albeit not in the legislature.

Hong Kongers, however, appear to want some alternative voices in Parliament, according to a recent survey.

The biannual poll conducted by local think-tank Path of Democracy and released on March 12 found that 48 per cent of the 1,000 Hong Kongers it polled in January and February were dissatisfied with the city’s opposition-free legislature.

“Some people felt that many lawmakers are speaking only to flatter Beijing, rarely provide their own insights and are unfamiliar with or passive in vetting the Bills,” said the think-tank’s founder Ronny Tong.

“It would be correct to conclude that people aren’t that happy with our current slate of legislators,” Mr Tong, who is also a member of Hong Kong’s top advisory body, the Executive Council, told ST.

However, he added that “the quality of the legislature doesn’t necessarily depend on whether there’s an opposition or not, but rather, on the quality of its lawmakers”.

Under the new electoral system put in place in 2021, only government-approved “patriots” can run Hong Kong, whether in the executive or legislative branch.

These “patriots” have first to be approved by an election committee stacked with Beijing allies, making it easy to weed out opposition candidates and effectively shut them out of the political arena.

The city’s 90-seat legislature today has only members from pro-establishment parties. This aided the eventual passage of the long-stalled copyright Bill without fanfare in 2022.

This situation has led to some pessimistic views about the fate of the city’s opposition groups.

“I don’t see any hope for opposition groups to rise again in the Hong Kong of today,” said independent political researcher Derek Yuen.

“There is quite truly no more place for dissenting voices in Hong Kong right now; it looks like the end of the road,” he told ST.

The Democratic Party, which was set up a little over 30 years ago, on Feb 20 started preparations to disband the 400-member body and wind up its affairs.

Members will have to vote on the dissolution at a meeting, with a 75 per cent majority required from those in attendance. The date for the meeting has not been set.

“I can’t see a future for the party in Hong Kong’s political environment today,” a Democratic Party member, who asked not to be named given the sensitivity of the matter, told ST. “We can’t run for elections anymore now.”

He declined to disclose more about the party’s internal discussions leading up to the move, but local media reports have cited anonymous sources as saying that several of the party’s members had in recent months received messages compelling them to disband.

Former lawmaker and founding party member Fred Li quoted a contact from the Communist Party of China as telling him, “you think (the party) can survive till December?” in response to his question about whether it could secure nominations in Hong Kong’s legislative elections at the end of 2025.

Until around 2021, Hong Kong’s opposition camp was allowed to wield considerable political power, representing a range of dissenting or minority views in the LegCo.

But this often also created logjams for legislation. If one controversial Bill was subjected to filibustering by lawmakers dragging out the debate or delaying meetings by absenting themselves, it would hold up all the other Bills lined up behind it.

In 2015, filibustering over the copyright Bill stalled for months the passing of more than 20 other Bills that included those addressing livelihood matters and economic development.

Still, these activities in the legislature provided evidence to the world that the “one country, two systems” framework – under which China promised Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy that lets it retain its own economic and administrative systems – was firmly in place in the city.

That changed after a prolonged period of social unrest in 2019 sparked by opposition to an extradition Bill that would have allowed criminal suspects to be extradited to the mainland. Anti-government protests that sometimes turned violent and included a storming of the LegCo building led the authorities to clamp down on opposition activity in the city.

To restore political stability, Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong in 2020. Many opposition figures, including several from the Democratic Party, have since been driven into exile or convicted of national security offences such as subversion.

The electoral system was also overhauled.

“The opposition camp used to play a very important role in ‘one country, two systems’, but now Beijing doesn’t even care about keeping up this impression (of adhering to the framework) any more,” said Mr Yuen, who is also a regular political columnist with local media outlets Ming Pao and am730.

Said Mr Tong: “In terms of opposition presence, if the Democratic Party falls, I can’t see at this moment any able leaders who can lead the other democratic parties in the city.”

Veteran Democratic Party member and former lawmaker Emily Lau is more optimistic.

“It’s very sad of course that the party is planning to disband. This is the reality that we face today, but it’s not the end of the people’s struggle for democracy,” Ms Lau told ST.

Even without a presence in the legislature, the opposition camp can still play a role by continuing to reflect the diverse range of views across Hong Kong society today, she said.

Avenues include actively raising awareness of local issues, mentoring young people to encourage them to do more for society, and visiting and providing emotional support for those who have been imprisoned or are facing trial for their causes, she added.

Ms Lau hosts a podcast programme that discusses wide-ranging topics from the rule of law in Hong Kong to ideas on how to tackle the city’s economic problems.

“It may seem very difficult in the current political climate, but for as long as there are people who are prepared to speak their minds – in a way that does not breach the laws nor endanger themselves – we can still play our part in society,” she said.