By Scott DiSavino
(Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-week low on Monday on record output, negative spot prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas and forecasts for the weather to remain mild through the start of April, which should keep the amount of gas utilities pull from storage to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.
Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 12% below normal levels for this time of year after extreme cold in January and February forced energy firms to pull massive amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. [EIA /GAS] [NGAS/POLL]
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 2.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $4.076 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since February 28.
That futures price decline occurred despite record gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas export (LNG) plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected.
In the spot market, gas prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale in West Texas turned negative for the first time since November 2024 due to pipeline maintenance that was trapping gas associated with oil production in the basin.
Traders talked of maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan’s El Paso Natural Gas pipe from Texas, New Mexico and Colorado to California and Arizona and WhiteWater, MPLX and Enbridge’s Whistler pipeline from West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.
With gas futures down about 7% last week, speculators cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental exchanges for a second time in three weeks to the lowest since late February, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 1.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 107.2 bcfd this week to 107.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG’s outlook on Friday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana enter service.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due partly to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and $14 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. [NG/EU]
Week Week Year Five
ende ende ago -yea
d d Mar r
Mar Mar 14 aver
14 7 age
Fore Actu Mar
cast al 14
U.S. weekly natgas storage -19 -62 +5 -31
change (bcf):
U.S. total natgas in storage 1,67 1,69 2,33 1,89
(bcf): 9 8 1 7
U.S. total storage versus -11. -11.
5-year average 5 9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures Curr Prio This Prio Five
($ per mmBtu) ent r Mont r -Yea
Day Day h Year r
Last Aver Aver
Year age age
2024 (201
9-20
23)
Henry Hub 4.18 4.10 1.75 2.41 3.52
Title Transfer Facility 13.2 13.4 8.54 10.9 15.4
(TTF) 3 4 5 7
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.6 13.6 8.95 11.8 15.2
4 7 9 3
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling
(CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree
Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Curr Prio Prio 10-Y 30-Y
ent r r ear ear
Day Day Year Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 229 222 255 246 252
U.S. GFS CDDs 18 17 10 20 16
U.S. GFS TDDs 247 239 265 266 268
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply
and Demand Forecasts
Prio Curr Next This Five
r ent Week Week -Yea
Week Week Last r
Year (202
0-20
24)A
vera
ge
For
Mont
h
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 105. 106. 105. 101. 97.5
7 2 6 6
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.1 8.9 9.4 N/A 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 114. 115. 115. N/A 105.
7 0 0 4
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 3.8 4.1 4.1 N/A 3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 5.9 6.2 N/A 5.4
U.S. LNG Exports 15.5 16.1 15.8 13.1 11.8
U.S. Commercial 11.2 10.4 10.6 11.9 11.8
U.S. Residential 17.2 15.8 15.5 17.7 18.3
U.S. Power Plant 25.9 23.9 24.1 30.8 27.5
U.S. Industrial 23.7 23.5 23.8 24.5 23.8
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Total U.S. Consumption 85.6 81.1 81.6 92.7 90.1
Total U.S. Demand 111. 107. 107. N/A 110.
1 2 7 6
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River 2025 2025 2024 2023 2022
Forecast Center (NWRFC) at Curr Pri % of % of % of
The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ent or Norm Norm Norm
ending Sep 30) Day Day al al al
% of % of Actu Actu Actu
Norm Norm al al al
al al
Fore Fore
cast cast
Apr-Sep 93 93 74 83 107
Jan-Jul 90 90 76 77 102
Oct-Sep 91 91 77 76 103
U.S. weekly power generation
percent by fuel – EIA
Week Week 2024 2023 2022
ende ende
d d
Mar Mar
21 14
Wind 20 15 11 10 11
Solar 5 7 5 4 3
Hydro 7 7 6 6 6
Other 1 1 1 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 32 34 42 41 38
Coal 13 16 16 17 21
Nuclear 21 20 19 19 19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas
Next-Day Prices ($ per
mmBtu)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
Henry Hub 3.89 3.89
Transco Z6 New York 2.7 3.33
9
PG&E Citygate 3.7 3.71
0
Eastern Gas (old Dominion 2.7 3.17
South) 2
Chicago Citygate 3.2 3.26
0
Algonquin Citygate 3.0 3.42
0
SoCal Citygate 3.8 3.94
2
Waha Hub -0. 0.33
79
AECO 1.62 1.55
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day
Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Curr Prio
ent r
Day Day
New England 41.0 51.3
7 9
PJM West 45.7 46.8
0 4
Mid C 38.1 39.5
0 7
Palo Verde 23.8 18.7
8 1
SP-15 24.5 25.0
3 0
text_section_type=”notes”>For gas data on the LSE terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type ‘Interactive Map’ in the box at upper left of the LSE terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SOL U.S. gas prices, see:For next-day SOL U.S. power prices, see:For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: [NGAS/POLL]For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: [NUKE/]For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see:For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see:For the U.S. power speed guide, see:To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub futures onlyICE Henry Hub options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combinedNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
