In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the ongoing war in Ukraine is considered the first line of defense. Providing aid to Ukraine is therefore existential because if Ukraine lose the war, Russia’s troops would be back on the borders of the Baltic states.
Donald Trump’s decision to stop providing aid and intelligence to Ukraine and start to thaw relations with Russia is creating anxiety among the three post-soviet nations.
At the same time, around two thousand US soldiers are stationed across the three countries. When asked if these troops would remain on NATO’s eastern flank in the future, Trump said he is committed to Poland, then hesitated for a moment and said: “The Baltics…they got a lot of… it’s a tough neighborhood too, but we’re committed.”
He again emphasized that the Europeans must step up and provide more than they have in defense. “I want to see them equalize, because they are in for far less than we’re in,” Trump said.
The Baltic states are at the top end of the NATO list in terms of defense spending ratio to GDP and have, like Trump, been urging other European countries to ramp up their defense budgets.
In 2024, Estonia spent 3.43%, Latvia 3.15% and Lithuania 2.85% of their GDP on defense. In light of recent developments in Ukraine and US-Russia relations, all the Baltic States have pledged to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Estonia look to walk the line
Tomas Jarmalavicius, the head of studies at the International Centre for Defense and Security in Tallinn, Estonia, said the Baltics are trying to balance the importance of two different lines of communication.
“One line says that the US still remains committed and is a pivotal ally of Europe and the Baltics. The second one says we must increase our assistance to Ukraine for them to prevail and succeed, increase the pressure on Russia and obviously also increase in the investments into European defense,” Jarmalavicius told DW.
He added that this balancing act is now becoming difficult, as the two are becoming increasingly incompatible. “We will eventually face the dilemma whether to continue supporting Ukraine or seek to keep the US engaged. Because there will be a point we won’t be able to have both,” he said.
Right now, public messaging from the Baltic States appears to be an attempt to straddle the two sides.
No change in policy
The prime minister of Estonia, Kristen Michal, told DW that his country will continue to work with the United States in as many ways as they can with regard to Ukraine. “Fortunately, no NATO country has to choose between NATO options and other options, because in my opinion NATO is working,” Michal said.
“Despite a few failed events, if I’m being very lenient, they [the US and Ukraine] are still trying to build bridges with each other on the issue of mineral resources and security guarantees. Europe can provide some of this protection and financing to Ukraine, but the United States must also be involved in this.”
In Michal’s view, there is also an upside to Trump’s pressure on Europe. “If you know that you are wealthy and in your region have the threat of Russia, you have to contribute to it [defense]. In this sense, the alarm bell should have rung a long time ago even without Trump, but now Trump may be helping to sound the alarm bell. Maybe even a bad message has its own point,” Michal added.
Andzejs Viļumsons, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, told DW that it is too early to draw concrete conclusions on Trump’s recent actions.
“I think all the signals that we are picking up from Washington, also in public domain, show that it’s part of negotiating tactics with Ukrainians. That gives me hope that this is not something that is definite and unchangeable,” Viļumsons said.
Viļumsons further said there is no reason to believe that the US has a Russia-friendly administration. “All the conversations that we have had with the new administration, or the foreign minister does not lead us to think that the US is kind of abandoning us or suddenly has become friend for Russia,” he said.
‘No other ship in sight’
Linas Kojala, Director of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center in Vilnius, Lithuania, explained to DW that the Baltics are trying to be as positive towards the US as is possible, because the US is quite irreplaceable as a security partner.
“Maybe in 3, 5, 7 or 10 years Europe could compensate for that but will need to spend a lot of money and a lot of time and political will in order to make it work. At this moment of time, we have to do whatever is needed to salvage the US relationship,” Kojala said.
“The Baltics are on a ship in the middle of the ocean and the ship is led by the US, we can jump off the ship, but there is no other ship in sight. It’s not like we can find a direct alternative at this moment of time,” Kojala said.
He added that if there was a choice, the reaction from the Baltics to Trump would be very different. “Some of the statements are very hard to stand, and they go against the direct interest of Ukraine,” Kojala said.
The future priorities for the Baltics are the things that are controllable: supporting Ukraine and strengthening their self-defense capabilities and cooperation with European allies like Germany, France and the UK.
Although, the Baltics have felt Europe has not done enough in defense over the last years, the €800billion defense plan of European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, is a step in the right direction.
“I remember half a year ago when I came to this position, I asked Ursula von der Leyen in a friendly way that we would like to do some things faster in defense, get some kind of change in the budgetary rules. Back then she said today there is not such an opportunity. I told her about it yesterday: now we finally got there,” concluded Kristen Michal.
Edited by: Matt Pearson
